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Crude Holds Gains on Strong Economic Data, Gold Lacks Safe Haven Demand

Crude Holds Gains on Strong Economic Data, Gold Lacks Safe Haven Demand

2011-02-02 04:51:00
Ilya Spivak, Sumit Roy,
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Commodities – Energy

Crude Holds Gains on Strong Economic Data

Crude Oil (WTI) - $90.89 // $0.12 // 0.13%

Commentary: Crude oil fell on Tuesday, with WTI shedding $1.42, or 1.54%, to settle at $90.77. Brent managed to put in another gain, however, settling $0.73, or 0.72%, higher at $101.74. Strong economic data allowed crude to maintain recent gains; German unemployment fell to the lowest level since 1992 and manufacturing activity accelerated in almost every major region. Specifically, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index hit the highest level since 2004. Equity markets were also supported, with the S&P 500 index surging 1.6% to a fresh 30-month high.

Technical Outlook: Prices have put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick formation below resistance at $92.58, December’s swing high, hinting a move lower is ahead. Sellers initially target channel bottom support at $85.51.

Crude_Holds_Gains_on_Strong_Economic_Data_Gold_Lacks_Safe_Haven_Demand_body_02022011_OIL.png, Crude Holds Gains on Strong Economic Data, Gold Lacks Safe Haven Demand

Commodities – Metals

Gold Lacks Safe Haven Demand

Gold - $1342.18 // $4.08 // 0.30%

Commentary: Gold added $5.30, or 0.4%, to settle at $1338.10 as the metal continues to digest recent losses. With asset prices surging and euphoria growing, gold’s safe haven characteristics are now in less demand. Even steady declines in the U.S. Dollar are not spurring gains in the metal, indicating that this correction is very much gold-specific. In order to see a reversal, either prices need to get low enough to attract renewed interest or some exogenous event needs to enter the picture.

Technical Outlook: Prices are testing the upper boundary of a falling channel that has guided the way lower since the beginning of January, a barrier reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $1352.49. A break above here exposes the 50% Fib at $1366.15. Alternatively, renewed downward momentum sees initial support at $1308.25.

Crude_Holds_Gains_on_Strong_Economic_Data_Gold_Lacks_Safe_Haven_Demand_body_02022011_GLD.png, Crude Holds Gains on Strong Economic Data, Gold Lacks Safe Haven Demand

Silver - $28.66 // $0.12 // 0.43%

Commentary: Silver continued to outperform its close cousin on Tuesday, rising a notable $0.48, or 1.71%, to settle at $28.54. The liquidation that we are seeing in gold has spilled over into silver, but only modestly.

The gold/silver moved lower to 46.8, but remains above the four-year low near 46 set late last year. (The gold/silver ratio measures the relative value/performance of the two precious metals. A higher ratio indicates gold outperformance, while a lower ratio indicates silver outperformance)

Technical Outlook: Prices took out the top of falling channel set from early January to challenge resistance at $28.82, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1/3-1/28 downswing. A break above here exposes the 61.8% level at $29.39. The channel top – now at $28.20 – has been recast as support.

Crude_Holds_Gains_on_Strong_Economic_Data_Gold_Lacks_Safe_Haven_Demand_body_02022011_SLV.png, Crude Holds Gains on Strong Economic Data, Gold Lacks Safe Haven Demand

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