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Crude Oil to Look Toward Earnings, Housing Data, Risk Appetite; Gold Tests Bottom of Range

Crude Oil to Look Toward Earnings, Housing Data, Risk Appetite; Gold Tests Bottom of Range

2010-07-19 04:29:00
Sumit Roy,
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Commodities - Energy

Crude Oil to Look Toward Earnings, Housing Data, Risk Appetite

Crude Oil (WTI)        $75.75       -$0.25        -0.33%

Commentary:
Crude oil is down slightly after finishing last week essentially flat. The commodity initially got a boost from encouraging corporate earnings announcements, but by the end of the week, as stocks fell on renewed global economic concerns, oil followed. This week prices will again take their cues from U.S. corporate earnings announcements, as well as fluctuations in the risk appetite of traders and investors. Key economic reports in the coming week are related to housing, with data on U.S. building permits out on Tuesday and existing home sales out on Thursday.

Technical Outlook: Crude oil is near the bottom of a minor congestion range between $74.25 and $78.15. Prices may be carving out a symmetrical triangle, which would send prices to the channel bottom near $73.00. Below that lies $71.50 support. On the upside, $78-79 provides resistance, followed by the channel top at $81.00

commodityupdate07192010oil
                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Commodities - Metals

Gold Tests Bottom of Range

Gold      $1192.95       -$0.05        -0.00%

Commentary:
Gold is flat after shedding nearly 2% in last week’s trade. While gold ETF holdings increased to another record, the pace of inflows is diminishing. The greatest risk to gold prices is if investors begin to liquidate their enormous positions in gold, specifically gold ETFs. Also of note last week was the fact that the CBOE gold volatility index finally ticked up on Friday, rising from 17 to over 20. Gold volatility may be poised to increase in the event of a breakdown below recent support levels.

Technical Outlook: Gold prices tested $1185 support in Friday’s session, but managed to bounce off the level. The metal remains trapped between $1185 on the downside and $1215 on the upside. A break would send prices toward $1166 horizontal support, which also coincides with a rising trendline that extends back to January.

Silver      $17.83        -$0.02       -0.11%


Commentary:
The outlook for silver continues to dependent on the outlook for gold. The two metals have been tied at the hip, with the only opportunity for decoupling being fluctuations in the gold/silver ratio between 60 and 70.

Technical Outlook: $17.50, the bottom of the range, is key support that extends back to April. On the upside, $19.00 is resistance and the top of said range.

commodityupdate07192010gold
                                                                                                                                                                                                        

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