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Crude Oil Steady After China Demand Hits Records, Gold Lacking Catalysts

Crude Oil Steady After China Demand Hits Records, Gold Lacking Catalysts

2010-07-12 03:56:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Commodities - Energy

Crude Oil Steady After China Demand Hits Records

Crude Oil (WTI)        $76.13       +$0.04        +0.05%

Commentary:
Crude oil is up a few pennies after rallying 4% last week. News that China’s crude oil imports rose to a record high in June, while bullish, is having little impact thus far. Preliminary data released yesterday by China’s General Administration of Customs indicates that June imports rose to 22.14 million metric tons, higher than the previous record of 20.98 million tons in April. Additionally, the latest data on U.S. demand has been pointing toward a 5% year-over-year increase. Oil is likely to keep rising in the event we keep seeing these bullish data points on world demand growth. There needs to be substantial evidence of a double dip in world economies for crude oil to break recent lows near $70.00.

Technical Outlook: Prices have taken out resistance at $75.81, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 5/20-6/28 upswing. A rising channel seems to be taking shape, suggesting continued gains ahead targeting the June swing high at $79.38 and the $80 figure.

crudeoil07122010
                                                                                                                                                                                                    

Commodities - Metals

Gold Lacking Catalysts

Gold      $1210.05       -$1.55        -0.13%

Commentary:
Gold fluctuated last week, but ultimately ended the week where it began. Currently prices are not moving much. With the Euro well off its recent lows and reduced concern over sovereign debt, it is hard to get excited about gold at levels above $1200. On the other hand, investor appetite remains insatiable with gold ETF holdings hitting a new record last week.

Technical Outlook: Positioning is little changed from last week. Prices have found near term support just above 1181.09, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upswing from early February, after breaking down out of a bearish Rising Wedge chart formation. Continued selling targets the 50% Fib at $1155.08, while the 23.6% Fib at $1213.27 marks initial resistance

Silver      $18.10        -$0.03       -0.17%

Commentary:
Since April, silver prices have been largely rangebound between the low-mid $17’s and $19. There is no catalyst in the near-term to move the metal out of this range.

Technical Outlook: Prices continue to test horizontal resistance-turned-support at $17.45 having consolidated above this level in a choppy range since late March. A sustained move above the $18 figure exposes $18.51

gold07122010
                                                                                                                                                                                                        

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