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Crude Oil Inventory Watch: Week Ending 7/02/2010

Crude Oil Inventory Watch: Week Ending 7/02/2010

2010-07-09 01:30:00
Sumit Roy,
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Total petroleum inventories fell further behind the levels of a year ago, but maintained their differential to the 5-year average. The surplus stands at 66.174 million, or 6.4% above the 5-year average, the same as last week.

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Crude oil inventories fell sharply last week, but the 5 million barrel withdrawal was fairly close to the 5-year average withdrawal of 4 million barrels. The surplus to the 5-year average decreased almost 1 million barrels to 28.131 million barrels, or 8.5%, down from 8.7% a week ago.

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It was a mixed bag with regard to product inventories. Gasoline stocks rose more than normal, while distillate stocks rose much less than normal.

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Demand

Total petroleum demand over the last four weeks was 19.3 million barrels per day, up 5.1% from the same period a year ago. Gasoline demand was up 2.0% year-over-year, while distillate demand was up 15.8%.

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Imports

Crude oil imports averaged 9.4 million barrels per day over the last four week period, which is 0.449 million barrels above the same period a year ago. Gasoline imports have been making a comeback in recent weeks.

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Refinery Activity

Refinery utilization increased 1.4% week-over-week, from 88.4% to 89.8%, though the higher rate did not translate into increase gasoline or distillate production. Utilization is running above last year’s depressed levels, largely due to the YOY increase in demand.

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Miscellaneous

U.S. crude oil production rose 3% from last week, despite the shutting-in of nearly 1.4 million barrels, or 200,000 barrels per day, of production last week due to Hurricane Alex. Although Gulf of Mexico output is set to suffer going forward following the drilling moratorium, onshore production is in the midst of a resurgence thanks to rapidly improving drilling technologies. Year-to-date oil output is up 3.5% from the year ago period.

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Inventories at the NYMEX delivery point, Cushing, Oklahoma, fell 0.2 million barrels. There was little movement in prompt month calendar spreads this week, but at -0.56, they remain at very narrow levels.

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