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Oil Holds Above Support Ahead of Inventory Report

Oil Holds Above Support Ahead of Inventory Report

2010-05-26 03:23:00
Sumit Roy,
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Commodities - Energy

Oil Holds Above Support Ahead of Inventory Report

Crude Oil (WTI)       $69.51       +$0.76      +1.11%
Crude oil is back near $70.00/barrel after a volatile New York session on Tuesday. Little has changed as the commodity continues to move in lockstep with the broader financial markets. Of interest on Wednesday is the EIA Petroleum Status Report. Although inventories are currently not the primary price driver for oil, there is always the potential for a large surprise. That being said, the API survey hints at no such surprise (Crude +616K, Gasoline -3194K, Distillate +1518K).

Prices managed to settle under $69.50 horizontal support on Tuesday, however, at the moment they are back above that level. Clearly, oil is attempting to carve out a support area around the $69.50 level and the prior session’s $68.75 close is not significant enough to conclude that prices have broken down. What was stated yesterday is still valid: the S&P 500 is consolidating near the “flash lows” of $1066, while oil consolidates around the $69.50 level. If stocks breakdown, oil likely follows. This is precisely what happened on Tuesday, when the S&P 500 and oil fell to $1041 and $67, respectively, before bouncing back to their respective support levels later in the day.


Crude Oil (WTI) – Daily Chart
commodityupdate05262010oil
                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Commodities - Metals

Gold Rallies Again as Liquidation Ends

Gold       $1203.25      -$1.00      -0.08%
Gold prices are close to unchanged after regaining the $1200 level on Tuesday. Notably, gold held onto its gains despite the late day rebound in stocks and the Euro. This likely marks the end of the cash-raising liquidation cycle that has plagued the metal for the past week. Prices may continue to advance on persistent economic uncertainty. Resistance is at the all-time highs near $1250 and support is at the recent lows near $1166.

Silver       $18.04       +$0.10      +0.56%
Silver is inching higher after underperforming gold again on Tuesday. The lesser metal is down 1.5% since the stock market peak on April 26th versus the 4.3% rise in gold. The S&P 500 is down 12% in the period. Silver should continue to generate secondary safe haven demand. Horizontal support near $17.60 has held and prices may continue toward $18.50.

Spot Gold – Daily Chart
commodityupdate05262010gold
                                                                                                                                                                                                        

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