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Gold Eyes Record High, Oil Aiming Lower on China Slowdown Fears

Gold Eyes Record High, Oil Aiming Lower on China Slowdown Fears

2010-05-11 11:46:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Commodities - Energy

Oil Poised to Extend Losses on China Slowdown Fears

Crude Oil (WTI)      $75.69      -$1.11      -1.45%
Technical positioning is little changed from yesterday: prices stand just below support at the lower boundary of a rising channel established from mid-July 2009 eyeing February’s swing low at $69.50. Crude remains closely tied to risk sentiment, with a 21-day percent change correlation between the WTI contract and the MSCI World Stock Index now at 0.77. This hints that bearish momentum is set to continue with stocks sharply lower in Europe and US equity index futures down well over 1 percent ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street. Overnight data from China – the world’s second-largest crude consumer – may create additional headwinds. The annual inflation rate hit a 17-month high and loan growth surpassed analysts’ forecasts by a hefty 189 billion yuan (774 billion actual vs. 585 billion expected), stoking fears that Beijing will introduce new measures to slow lending growth and rein in the buoyant economy before it overheats. API crude inventory figures headline the economic calendar.

051110 1


Commodities - Metals

Gold Prices Test Record Highs on Renewed Risk Aversion

Gold      $1217.20     +$14.10     +1.17%
Fears of Chinese monetary tightening have been supportive overnight amid renewed safety demand, with prices on pace to test record highs in the $1215.70-1226.56 region. The metal remains closely correlated with the VIX Index of stock option volatility – the markets’ standby “fear gauge” – hinting that further upside may be ahead as US equity index futures tick sharply lower ahead of the Wall St trading open.

Silver      $18.48     -$0.04     -0.23%
Silver prices remain range-bound between $17.48 and $18.87, levels that have contained the metal since the beginning of April. Neutral readings on key correlation studies with benchmark assets (MSCI World Stock Index, VIX index, Dollar Index, etc) hint that continued sideways trade is likely in the near term.

051110 2


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