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Oil Rallies, Gold Declines on EU Stabilization Plan

Oil Rallies, Gold Declines on EU Stabilization Plan

2010-05-10 08:58:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Commodities - Energy

Crude Oil May Recover, Test $80 on EU Stabilization Plan

Crude Oil (WTI)       $78.12       +$3.01       +4.01%
Prices have broken below support at the lower boundary of a rising channel established from mid-July 2009, exposing February’s swing low at $69.50. Crude remains closely tied to risk sentiment, with a 21-day percent change correlation studies between the WTI contract and the MSCI World Stock Index returning a value of 0.79. This hints that a bounce is likely ahead as stocks race higher in Europe and US equity index futures tick 0.4 percent higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall St following the announcement that the EU and the IMF will commit close to a trillion euro to a scheme designed to contain sovereign risk threats in the region. Initial resistance lines up at the $80.00 figure.

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Commodities - Metals

Gold Declines Amid Risk Rebound, Silver Holds Range

Gold       $1191.25      -$17.15      -1.42%
Prices have slipped back below the $1200 figure as initial optimism about the EU stabilization plan announced in Asian hours sapped demand for the gold as a safe-haven asset. The metal remains closely correlated with the VIX Index of stock option volatility – the markets’ standby “fear gauge” – hinting that continued downside is ahead as US equity index futures tick firmly higher ahead of the Wall St open. Initial support is found at $1155.04, the bottom of a rising channel set from the swing bottom in late March.

Silver       $18.37       +$0.01       +0.07%
Silver prices recovered from resistance-turned-support at $17.48, retaking the $18.00 figure and pushing toward the next upside barrier at $18.87. On balance, prices have been largely range-bound between these levels since the beginning of April, with close to neutral readings on correlation studies with benchmark assets (MSCI World Stock Index, VIX index, Dollar Index, etc) hinting that continued sideways trade is likely.

051010 2


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