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Oil Holds to Familiar Range, Metals May See Further Upside

Oil Holds to Familiar Range, Metals May See Further Upside

2010-03-30 01:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist

Commodities - Energy

Crude Oil Range Intact Above $80, Risk Trends in Focus

Crude Oil (WTI)      $81.18      +$0.01      +0.01%

Prices have once again rebounded following a test below the $80 figure, with positioning broadly range-bound below this and the $83.16 level. The 20-day percent change correlation between crude and the MSCI World Stock Index stands at 0.87, hinting at the continued dominance of risk trends in shaping directional momentum. The US economic calendar looks supportive, with Consumer Confidence expected to rise to 51 in March from 46 in the previous month. Crude inventory figures from the American Petroleum Institute are also on the docket.

Commodity Update 1

Commodities - Metals

Gold, Silver Technical Positioning Favors Further Upside

Gold      $1109.40 -     $0.33      -0.03%
Prices have recovered from support at $1088.13 and are now approaching resistance at the top of a falling channel set from the swing high in early March, now at $1119.10. A break beyond this boundary will expose the $1128.91 level. Gold’s function as an inflation hedge remains the primary force behind directional momentum with prices closely tied to the near-term outlook for US interest rates. Indeed, the 20-day percent change correlation between gold and the yield on 12-month Treasury notes now stands at a year-to-date high of 0.60.

Silver       $17.32       -$0.08      -0.46%

As with gold, the outlook for near-term US interest rates is the primary catalyst. Technical positioning favors the upside after prices broke through support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line set from the swing low in early February, with the door now open for an advance to the $17.65 level.

Commodity Update 2

Written by Ilya Spivak, Analyst, CFDTrading Research
Questions/Comments about this article? Send them to ispivak@dailyfx.com


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