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Crude Oil, Gold Set to Fall in With Trends in Risk Appetite

Crude Oil, Gold Set to Fall in With Trends in Risk Appetite

2010-03-26 13:16:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Commodities - Energy

Crude Oil Range-Bound Above $80, Risk Trends in Focus

Crude Oil (WTI)       $81.05       +$0.52       +0.65%
Prices continue to tread water between the $80 and $82 figures, with significant support in the $78.06-79.33 congestion region while major resistance lines up at $83.16. Risk appetite remains significant with the 21-day percent-change correlation between crude and the MSCI World Stock Index continues coming in at 0.82. US index futures are trading about 0.3 percent higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall St despite a downward revision to fourth-quarter US GDP figures, hinting that overnight optimism on the back of a final agreement between EU leaders on an IMF-assisted plan to bail out Greece will carry through into the end of the trading week.

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Commodities - Metals

Gold, Silver Prices to Fall in With Risk Appetite

Gold       $1095.70      +$5.20      +0.48%
Prices have recovered to re-test the $1100 figure having found support at $1088.13. Risk appetite seems likely to be the driver to watch into the final session of the trading week with gold showing a 0.77 reading on very short-term (5-day) correlation studies with the MSCI World Stock Index. A push above $1108.80 will expose $1118.49.

Silver      $16.85      +$0.23      +1.41%
Silver has rebounded from support at $16.50 to re-test support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line established from February’s swing low. A break higher initially targets $17.14. As with gold, risk appetite is central in the very near term with the 5-day correlation between silver and the MSCI World Stock Index also at 0.77.

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