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Oil Stalls Below $82, Looking to Risk Trends For Direction Cues

Oil Stalls Below $82, Looking to Risk Trends For Direction Cues

2010-03-24 07:39:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Commodities - Energy

Oil Stalls Below $82, Looking to Risk Trends For Direction Cues

Crude Oil (WTI)       $81.18       -$0.73       -0.89%
Positioning is unchanged from yesterday, with prices hovering just below the $82.00 figure. Prices are likely to fall in with the trajectory of risk appetite once again as the 21-day percent-change correlation between crude and the MSCI World Stock Index continues to hold the formidable reading of 0.85. This cautiously favors losses with US equity index futures tracking 0.2 percent lower in early European trade. February’s Durable Goods report may help encourage bearish momentum with expectations calling for an increase of 0.6 percent from the previous month, the smallest gain in two months. Weekly DOE crude inventory numbers are also on the docket. Near-term support lines up in the $78.06-79.33 congestion region.

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Commodities - Metals

Gold, Silver Continue to Trade With US Rates, Inflation Outlook

Gold       $1098.75      -$6.40      -0.58%
Prices continue to tread water above the $1100 figure having turned lower after a test of resistance at support-turned-resistance marked by a rising trend line set from the swing low in early February. The outlook for US inflation and interest remains the key driving force behind price action, with gold now showing a 0.52 percent change correlation with the 2-year Treasury note. A break below current support targets $1088.13. Near-term resistance lines up at $1120.00.

Silver       $16.87       -$0.17       -1.00%
Silver continues to stall at support marked by a rising trend line established from the 03/05 swing low. In a similar fashion to its more expensive counterpart, US inflation and monetary policy expectations remain the primary catalyst. A push below trend line support (now at $16.88) will expose the $16.00 figure, followed by a horizontal barrier at $15.69.

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