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Oil and Gold Selling to Continue on Risk Appeite, Inflation Bets

Oil and Gold Selling to Continue on Risk Appeite, Inflation Bets

2010-03-22 12:28:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Commodities - Energy

Crude Oil to Extend Losses on Fading Risk Appetite

Crude Oil (WTI)       $79.42       -$1.26      -1.56%
Oil reversed sharply lower after a test of support-turned-resistance at a rising trend line established from the swing bottom in early February, with prices now testing support in the $79.32-80.28 congestion region. The economic calendar is uneventful, leaving risk sentiment as the likely catalyst in the near term. Indeed, the correlation between crude and the MSCI World Stock Index now stands at 0.85. This is supportive of further losses after Asian and European shares sank deep into the red while US equity index futures are trading down 0.6% ahead of the opening bell on Wall St. A break below current support exposes $77.53.

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Commodities - Metals

Gold, Silver Selling to Continue on Fading Inflation Expectations

Gold       $1104.15       -$2.85      -0.26%
As with oil, prices have declined after a test of resistance at support-turned-resistance marked by a rising trend line set from the swing low in early February to test support at the $1100 figure. Lackluster inflation expectations remain the driving catalyst after the spread between 10-year Treasuries and TIPS (Treasury Inflation Protected Securities) narrowed to 2.21 percentage points, hinting investors are not pricing in significant upward pressure on the price level.

Silver       $16.83       -$0.16       -0.91%
In a similar fashion to its more expensive counterpart, fading inflation expectations continue to weigh down on silver prices. Prices are testing below range support at $16.94, with a break lower exposing $16.50.

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