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Oil to Decline on Risk Aversion, Gold on US Rates Outlook

Oil to Decline on Risk Aversion, Gold on US Rates Outlook

2010-03-15 09:10:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Commodities - Energy

Oil to Extend Losses on Risk Aversion after Warning of Chinese “Double Dip”

Crude Oil (WTI)       $80.76       -$0.48       -0.59%
Prices have pushed below support at a rising trend line set from the swing bottom in February. The near-term percent-change correlation between crude and the MSCI World Stock Index remains significant at 0.76, pointing to the continued influence of risk trends. This bodes well for sellers as a stocks sell-off in Asia carries forward with European shares and US stock index futures trading in the red. Risk aversion was triggered by comments from Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, who was quoted in the China Daily as saying that his country may experience a “double dip” this year. A break past initial support at $80.28 will expose a move lower to $77.53.

031510 1


Commodities - Metals

Gold, Silver May Decline on Firming US Interest Rate Outlook Ahead of FOMC

Gold       $1106.45       +$4.56       +0.41%
Gold has dropped to support just above the $1100 figure amid rising US rate hike expectations ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy announcement. The outcome may prove to ignite significant bearish momentum if the Kansas City Fed’s Tom Hoenig is joined by anyone else on the FOMC in arguing for updating the language in the central bank’s policy statement by removing the phrase calling for interest rates to remain at “exceptionally low levels for an extended period”. This would sharply this cut into demand for the yellow metal as an inflation hedge, sending prices lower. A break below current support exposes $1088.13.

Silver       $17.07       $0.00       0.00%
The outlook for silver is largely in line with that gold, with a firmer outlook for US monetary policy threatening to bolster sellers to push prices through support at $16.86 to target below the $16.00 figure. In the meantime, near-term resistance remains at $17.51.

031510 2


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