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Oil Breaks Higher, Gold May Decline on Fed Rate Hike Outlook

Oil Breaks Higher, Gold May Decline on Fed Rate Hike Outlook

2010-03-08 11:37:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Commodities - Energy

Oil May Pull Back on Risk Trends After Resistance Break

Crude Oil (WTI)       $82.30       +$0.80      +0.98%
Prices negated the bearish implications of a Rising Wedge that had been taking shape over recent weeks, breaking above the formation’s upper boundary to test horizontal resistance at $82.23. Continued bullish momentum eyes the next barrier at $83.52. The economic calendar is empty, leaving oil to trade with risk sentiment. Indeed, the percent-change correlation between the price of crude and the MSCI World Stock Index stands at 0.76. European shares are not showing directional conviction in early trade but US equity index futures have slipped into negative territory, giving up all their Asia-session gains. This may prove to be hinting that sellers are positioning to take the reins, with initial support at the broken wedge top (now at $81.17).

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Commodities - Metals

Gold, Silver May Decline on US Fed Rate Hike Outlook

Gold       $1136.85       +$2.21       +0.19%
Gold continue to consolidate below support-turned-resistance below $1142.76 at a rising trend line established from the swing bottom in early February, finding support above the $1118.60-1125.13 region. The semi-annual survey from the National Association of Business Economists (NABE) may be the most significant driver of price action in the near term. The report showed that most respondents believe the Fed will raise interest rates by 25-50bps within six months, which may weigh on inflation expectations and put downward pressure on gold as the go-to hedge against runaway prices.

Silver       $17.46       +$0.10       +0.59%
As with gold, the semi-annual survey out of the NABE may be the most significant near-term driver of price action, offering sellers the upper hand heading into US trading open. Technically, prices continue to inch higher along resistance marked by a rising trend line connecting major swing highs from early February, with a move lower seeing initial support at $16.80.

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