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Commodities Positioned for Losses but Oil May See Support fromTrichet, US Data

Commodities Positioned for Losses but Oil May See Support fromTrichet, US Data

2010-03-04 12:32:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Commodities - Energy

Oil Positioning Hints Losses But Trichet and US Data May Thwart Sellers

Crude Oil (WTI)       $80.95       +$0.08       +0.10%
Prices appear to be showing a bearish Rising Wedge formation, with negative RSI divergence acting as confirmation. Initial support is seen at $78.66, the wedge bottom, with a break below that exposing $77.53. US weekly jobless claims figures as well as January’s factory orders figures are expected higher however, which may stall bearish momentum. The post rate decision press conference of ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet may also prove significant, with the bank chief all but certain to comment on the developing Greek debt crisis. This may have significant implications for near-term risk sentiment and by extension for crude, considering the percent-change correlation between prices and the MSCI World Stock index remains at an elevated 0.79.

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Commodities - Metals

Gold, Silver Set to Decline, Diverge From Risky Assets

Gold       $1139.00       -$0.90      -0.08%
Gold prices are re-testing support-turned-resistance below $1142.76 at a rising trend line established from the swing bottom in early February. Negative RSI divergence points to a bearish bias, with initial support in the $1118.60-1125.13 region. Unlike oil, the correlation with risk sentiment has been substantially unwound suggesting less sensitivity to US data and the Trichet remarks, although this may change depending upon the gravity of what the ECB chief says.

Silver       $17.33      +$0.13       +0.76%
Silver is testing resistance at a rising trend line connecting swing highs from early February, with a push higher leaving the door open for a challenge of the $18.00 figure. Negative RSI divergence argues for a bearish bias however, with the first layer of support at $16.80. As with gold, the correlation to risk sentiment has dropped off significantly for the time being, leaving the cheaper precious metal to its own devices in the near term.

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