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Crude Oil, Metals to Correct Higher as Risk Appetite Recovers

Crude Oil, Metals to Correct Higher as Risk Appetite Recovers

2010-02-26 11:31:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Commodities - Energy

Oil Prices to Correct Higher Before Selling Resumes

Crude Oil (WTI)       $78.41       +$0.24       +0.31%
Prices have cleared rising channel support to pause ahead of a horizontal barrier at $77.53. Risk appetite was well-supported in Asia and remains so in Europe, with all major stock exchanges and US index futures well into positive territory. Oil retains a strong percent change correlation with the MSCI World Stock Index – now at 0.92 – so this suggests that an upswing from here is likely. The economic calendar is supportive, with flat to better outcomes expected for US GDP, Existing Home Sales and Univ. of Michigan Confidence figures. Initial resistance at the broken channel top (now at $79.87).

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Commodities - Metals

Gold, Silver to Extend Correction, Follow S&P 500 Higher

Gold       $1111.11       +$4.76       +0.43%
Prices broke out of a rising channel to find support at $1087.68 and corrected higher. Unlike oil - which seems to follow the more global MSCI World Stock Index - gold exhibits a strong correlation to US equities (i.e. the S&P 500) in particular. The 20-day reading now stands at 0.84, so the positive cues in current futures gains argue for continued gains. Initial resistance lines up in the $1118.60-1125.13 congestion region.

Silver       $16.15       +$0.07       +0.40%
As with gold, prices have corrected higher from support at $15.68 after breaking lower out of a rising channel. The correlation with the S&P 500 here stands at 0.88, the highest in at least six months, higher US index futures point to gains for the cheaper precious metal as well. Initial resistance stands at $16.45, the broken channel’s bottom.

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