News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Netflix regarding subscriber miss - "We don’t believe competitive intensity materially changed in the quarter or was a material factor in the variance as the over-forecast was across all of our regions" Doesn't really inspire confidence...
  • Netflix Q1 Earnings: Revs: $7.16B vs. est. $7.14 EPS: $3.75 vs est. $2.98 $NFLX
  • Netflix earnings: $7.16b rev vs $7.14b est EPS: $3.75 vs $2.98 est Huge miss on subscribers added: +3.98m vs +6.29m est $NFLX shares 10% lower on subscriber miss
  • US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/live_events/2021/04/20/US-Dollar-Price-Action-Setups-EUR-USD-GBP-USD-USD-JPY-GBP-JPY.html
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.33% Germany 30: 0.25% France 40: 0.09% US 500: 0.01% Wall Street: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/3jk8anEOJd
  • The FTSE 100 index surpasses 7000 landmark for the first time since Feb 2020. Ocado Group is strong out of the gate after £10m investment in Oxbotica. Get your #FTSE market update from @RichardSnowFX here:https://t.co/JWFr74q0Mv https://t.co/CFPmSI5fbe
  • Italian Health Ministry recommends Johnson & Johnson vaccine be used on people over 60 $EUR $JNJ
  • Italy's Franco: - EU and ECB funding cannot last forever - Debt must be reduced $EUR
  • video of today's webinar posted + ready to go. $USD the focus, $Gold got a look, too (~25 mins in) https://t.co/ogyrmiJDey
  • Italy's Franco: GDP likely negative in Q1, but positive in Q2
Australian Dollar, APAC Markets Focus on Bond Yields to Start March

Australian Dollar, APAC Markets Focus on Bond Yields to Start March

Thomas Westwater, Analyst

Treasury Yields, Australian Dollar, RBA– Talking Points

  • US markets ended on a sour note in February as a bond market rout hit confidence
  • Rising government yields may continue to threaten risk appetite throughout markets
  • AUD/USD selloff leaves the pair in a fragile technical posture searching for support
Top Trading Opportunities in 2021
Top Trading Opportunities in 2021
Recommended by Thomas Westwater
Get Your Free Top Trading Opportunities Forecast
Get My Guide

The risk-off move seen across markets last week, prompted by rising government bond yields, may continue as investors reallocate their portfolios. US equity indexes were among the hardest hit, lead by technology stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 index sinking nearly 5% on the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and small-cap Russell 2000 also saw steep losses.

A sharp rise in Treasury yields was the main culprit for last week’s selloff, stemmed from a growing reflationary theme. The 10-year yield climbed for a fourth straight week as investors continued to ditch government debt. A likely trigger for the selloff may have likely been the 10-year rate eclipsing the S&P 500’s dividend yield.

The US session will kick March off with Manufacturing PMI figures for February from Markit Economics and the Institute for Supply Management. Later in the week, will see the highly anticipated Non-farm payrolls report cross the wires, with analysts expecting a print of 165k jobs added for February, according to the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

S&P 500 Dividend Yield vs 10-Year Treasury Rate

SPX vs Dividend yield chart

Monday’s Asia-Pacific Outlook

APAC equity markets will likely take direction from bond markets to kick off March. A risk-off atmosphere may continue to plague equity prices if government bond yields continue to pace higher. Alternatively, if yields moderate, equity prices may see buying pressure through the week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) dropped 3.64% on Friday and mainland China’s Composite closed 2.12% lower.

Today’s economic calendar shows Australia’s Ai Group Manufacturing Index on the docket. The week’s main event, however, will be an interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Analysts are expecting the RBA to hold its benchmark rate steady at 0.10%, although traders will key in on comments over the recent bond market rout. The RBA unexpectedly threw an offer into the market to purchases A$3 billion in three-year notes last week.

The move came after an intense selloff in Australian bond futures when 10-year saw the sharpest drop in years. While the move appeared to help calm markets, the RBA may have to step in again if investors continue to sell. The Australian Dollar was bruised badly, with AUD/USD ending its worst week since September 2020.

AUD/USD Technical Outlook

The Australian Dollar dropped over 2% against the US Dollar on Friday and broke below its 50-day Simple Moving Average in the process. A Triangle chart pattern came back into play on the downswing, with the apex of the pattern appearing to provide a level of support. The move’s velocity caught many traders off-guard as prices dropped nearly 4% in under 48 hours.

AUD/USD’s technical posture is now rather fragile compared to just last week. To the downside, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level may offer support and a potential reversal point. Conversely, moving back above the 50-day SMA could restore some confidence and allow the cross to begin tracking higher. The MACD oscillator suggests more pain could be in store for the Aussie-Dollar, however.

AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

AUDUSD chart

Chart created with TradingView

AUD/USD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES