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AUD/USD Downtrend to Accelerate? Election Betting Odds Defying Polls

AUD/USD Downtrend to Accelerate? Election Betting Odds Defying Polls

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst


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2020 Election, AUD/USD Analysis, Polling Numbers, Betting Odds - Talking Points

  • Election polls show Biden ahead of Trump, but betting odds are show a slightly different narrative
  • Third presidential debate: what are the topics, where is it taking place and what time does it start?
  • AUD/USD downtrend may accelerate as area between descending resistance and support narrows


It is almost two weeks until November 3, and polls continue to show Democratic nominee Joe Biden in the lead while incumbent President Donald Trump lags. Having said that, the race may be slightly closer than what the polls indicate as a result of what statisticians call “differential partisan non-response”. You can read more about it here and why markets may be caught off-guard.

2020 US Election Polls

Chart showing election 2020 polls

Source: RealClearPolitics

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In the same contrarian light, betting odds are showing a convergence after the Biden-Trump spread blasted to its widest difference on record between the two candidates. The key takeaway here is much like in 2016, despite what most polling stations say, there is still the possibility of another so-called “black swan” event. This is where a statistically improbable outcome – typically on the tail-end of a distribution curve – occurs.

2020 Election Betting Odds

Chart showing 2020 election

Source: RealClearPolitics

If Mr. Trump is re-elected, the political shockwave would likely catch markets off-guard, especially if they had positioned themselves with the expectation of Biden’s victory. As a result, the volatility that might ensue could stoke demand for havens like the US Dollar and put a discount on risk-anchored assets like the Australian Dollar and equities. Learn more about how markets might react to the election.

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Third Presidential Debate – But Actually the Second

The third presidential debate will be occurring on October 22 from 01:00-02:30 GMT at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee. Like the previous debate, it will be 90 minutes and uninterrupted by commercial breaks. Here are the following topics: Fighting COVID-19, American Families, Race in America, Climate Change National Security,and Leadership. The moderator will be NBC's Kristen Welker.

AUD/USD Analysis

AUD/USD has been trading under the steep guidance of descending resistance and may soon enter what I call a compression zone. This is the area marked by a stubborn inflection point at 0.7018 and the slope of depreciation. Breaking above the latter could inspire additional follow through, resulting a short but aggressive buying burst.

AUD/USD - Daily Chart

Chart showing AUD/USD

AUD/USD chart created using TradingView

On the other hand, shattering 0.7018 might reinforce what appears to be a bearish disposition and could further accelerate the pair’s decline. In this scenario, selling pressure may start abating just before AUD/USD hits late-June support at 0.6829.

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitri on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.