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AUD/USD May Retreat if Trump Covid-19 Infection Roils Markets

AUD/USD May Retreat if Trump Covid-19 Infection Roils Markets

2020-10-04 23:00:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
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2020 Election, AUD/USD, Trump Covid-19 Infection, Presidential Debate - Talking Points

  • Biden surges in the polls after first presidential debate, Trump’s infection
  • Risk-off dynamic could punish growth-anchored assets, push USD higher
  • AUD/USD could pullback and retest 10-month inflection point at 0.7018
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30 DAYS UNTIL THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

The election is now officially a month away, and political volatility has only been amplified. Following the first presidential debate, former Vice President Joe Biden’s popularity skyrocketed while President Donald Trump’s plunged. RealClearPolitics betting averages now show a 23.5-point spread, the widest in two months between the two candidates.

2020 US Election Betting Averages

RealClearPolitics Betting Averages

Source: RealClearPolitics

Furthermore, Trump’s recent infection with Covid-19 has also contributed to Mr. Biden’s soaring popularity. The President frequently dismissed the severity of the virus and even attempted to chastise the Democratic nominee for wearing a mask at his rallies. A few days later, Mr. Trump announced that he was diagnosed with the virus and was later admitted to the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.

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While he is not incapacitated, his admittance to the hospital could undermine market confidence by virtue of the uncertainty of the situation. The Australian Dollar may retreat while the US Dollar may rise if market mood shifts to favoring liquidity over returns. On the other hand, Trump’s illness may boost Biden in the polls, which markets might welcome if they reckon that his policy approach might bring comparatively less-uncertainty.

AUD/USD Price Analysis

AUD/USD is struggling to break above an inflection range between 0.7181 and 0.7206. Pulling back from that area opens the door to retesting what appears to be a significant level at 0.7018. It functioned as resistance in January, June and July but most recently as support. If AUD/USD continues to decline and punctures that floor, it may well revert to its earlier form as resistance and perhaps signal a deeper retreat to come.

AUD/USD - Daily Chart

Chart showing AUD/USD

AUD/USD chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or@ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/10/01/will-trade-wars-persist-after-the-us-election.html

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