2020 Election, S&P 500 Outlook, Biden-Trump Spread, Swig State Polls - Talking Points
- S&P 500 gearing up for more losses? Benchmark trading at critical support
- Biden continues to lead Trump in general election polls and key swing states
- SPX closed just below 3282.3 and could try to challenge the floor at 3197.5
43 DAYS UNTIL THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Polling data as of September 21 show that the spread between former Vice President and Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump for the general election narrowed to 6 points. This is a little over 1 point below the approximately 7-point lead Mr. Biden has averaged over the past few weeks. Having said that, his performance in swing states is giving him the upper hand.
2020 US Election Polls
Biden Leading Trump in Swing States
Mr. Biden has an edge in swing states, particularly manufacturing hubs like Minnesota, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that were hurt from Washington’s trade war with China. Increased tension between the US and China – particularly after the WTO’s latest ruling – could push Trump to take a harder stance which may backfire if his constituents believe it will lead to more economic hardship in the future.
S&P 500 Price Analysis
The S&P 500’s decline may accelerate after the benchmark index broke below frequently-tested support at 3282.3. The SPX’s aggressive decline was amplified after it broke the March uptrend, unsuccessfully retested support-turned-resistance at 3392.5 and then capitulated. The next line of support will likely be another familiar support level at 3197.5, though if that too is cleared then selling pressure may aggressively swell.
S&P 500 - Daily Chart
S&P 500 chart created using TradingView
--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitri on Twitter
