News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • #USD, #GBP, #EUR Volatility Ahead of Cross-Continental Geopolitical Risks 🌎 https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/09/21/USD-GBP-EUR-Volatility-Ahead-of-Cross-Continental-Geopolitical-Risks.html
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/YqhzoZ7Iy2
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.06%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 71.15%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/HBqqTapm9J
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.38% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.33% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.25% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.25% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.19% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/JH55ljBb9H
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.10% Wall Street: 0.02% France 40: -0.33% Germany 30: -0.36% FTSE 100: -0.63% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/8yRTPMzD0b
  • The #AustralianDollar may continue to outperform its haven-associated counterparts after breaking above key chart resistance. $AUDUSD, $AUDJPY, $AUDCHF levels to watch. $AUD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/aud-usd/2020/09/21/Australian-Dollar-Time-Cycle-AUDUSD-AUDJPY-AUDCHF-Key-Levels.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/wfa6HxnANh
  • HSBC share price tumbled 3.2% after Chinese media agency Global Times reported that Beijing is considering putting HSBC into its Unreliable Entity List (UEL). Hang Seng Index fell 0.7% in early Asia trading hours. https://t.co/zrUCkWmH1w
  • Join @ZabelinDimitri 's #webinar at 11:30 PM ET/3:30 AM GMT to find out how geopolitical risk will affect the markets in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/hsULxMNOtM https://t.co/Dx6UMk2g1c
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.53% Oil - US Crude: 0.35% Gold: 0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/BjCmKqaBM8
  • The two-day closure of the Japanese markets suggests that liquidity in both equity and forex could be thin, rendering #USDJPY and #Nikkei225 futures susceptible to large swings, should there be surprising news. Read more here: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/09/21/Nasdaq-100-to-Test-100-Day-SMA--Hang-Seng-and-ASX-200-May-Open-Flat.html https://t.co/5fTJl1ytSe
EUR/USD to Reverse? Trump Call for US-China Decoupling Boosts Election Risks

EUR/USD to Reverse? Trump Call for US-China Decoupling Boosts Election Risks

2020-09-09 23:00:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
Share:

Talking Points: EUR/USD Analysis, Euro, US Dollar, Market Volatility, 2020 Election

  • Trump sent chilling message about global trade after his comments on China
  • What would cross-Pacific decoupling look like? Election pressure is growing
  • EUR/USD retesting multi-month support. What happens if the uptrend snaps?

55 DAYS UNTIL THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

Polling data as of September 9 show Democratic nominee Joe Biden overwhelmingly in the lead over president Donald Trump. This is not only the case for the general election but also in perennial swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina and a few others. In total, these battleground states account for about 156 electoral votes.

Starts in:
Live now:
Sep 28
( 03:09 GMT )
How can politics drive markets each week?
Geopolitical Risks Affecting Markets in the Week Ahead
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

2020 US Election Polls

EUR/USD to Reverse? Trump Call for US-China Decoupling Boosts Election Risks

Source: RealClearPolitics

Not entirely by coincidence, these states also host a large number of manufacturing-based enterprises that have suffered from the US-China trade war. While Mr. Trump’s intentions were to reduce the US trade deficit and increase exports to the Asian giant, the economic war led to a severe contraction in manufacturing and dampened business sentiment.

EUR/USD to Reverse? Trump Call for US-China Decoupling Boosts Election Risks

Source: CNBC

Mr. Biden and his running mate Kamala Harris have repeatedly decried Trump’s trade war with China. The former Vice President said “American farmers have been crushed by [the President’s] tariff war” with Ms. Harris echoing a similar message. Their stance in this regard - especially in light of Trump’s recent comments - may be giving them an edge in these key states.

Trump Decoupling From China Comment Sends Chilling Message

While this spread between Biden and Trump has recently widened, the latter’s recent comments have added to election uncertainty. Over Labor Day, he delivered remarks about the economy and threw in additional commentary on Sino-US relations. What caught headlines was his use of the word “decouple” when referring to economic relations between the two economies:

“We will make America into the manufacturing superpower of the world and will end our reliance on China once and for all. Whether it’s decoupling, or putting in massive tariffs like I’ve been doing already, we will end our reliance in China, because we can’t rely on China” - Reuters.

While past performance is not indicative of future results, the record shows that when it comes to policy with China, Mr. Trump’s barks are frequently followed by a bite. Consequently, if re-elected, the additional pressure on China and rhetoric of “decoupling” could significantly cool cross-border investment and hamper a recovery from the Covid-induced recession.

Concern about the continuation of escalated US-China tension, particularly as it relates to trade - could boost demand for havens like the Greenback. It also adds additional pressure to the upcoming election. The next major deadline to look out for will be the presidential debate on September 29.

EUR/USD Analysis

Earlier this week, EUR/USD broke below the modestly, upward-tilting support channel and is now retesting an older slope of appreciation. Where the pair moves from here could be critical. A bounce with follow-through could signal the continuation of a prior uptrend and reinforce what appears to be an underlying bullish narrative.

Starts in:
Live now:
Sep 28
( 03:09 GMT )
Join Day 3 of the DailyFX Summit discussing currencies
Geopolitical Risks Affecting Markets in the Week Ahead
Register for webinar
Join now
Webinar has ended

EUR/USD - Daily Chart

EUR/USD to Reverse? Trump Call for US-China Decoupling Boosts Election Risks

EUR/USD chart created using TradingView

Conversely, if EUR/USD cracks the floor and is unable to climb above it again, it will likely retest a flat but critical inflection range between 1.1720 and 1.1698. Invalidating that area could amplify bearish sentiment and may signal the start of a broader and deeper reversal.

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES