0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:https://t.co/sR7HqpK8BI https://t.co/Q6WGzHhudp
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/2MCG036HGH https://t.co/CbnRsuyRwi
  • #Gold saw its worst performance the past 5 days in 5 months as longer-dated government bond yields in developed countries rose Could this be the beginning of a turning point in #XAUUSD? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/08/15/Gold-Price-Outlook-Will-XAUUSD-Brush-off-Worst-Week-in-5-Months.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/x2Indk3b7P
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/PT09ZsIOCa
  • The US #Dollar may rise, buoyed by haven demand as fiscal stimulus talks stagnate and swelling tensions between Washington and Beijing sink trade talks. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/Wcw9PDUr67 https://t.co/gnYZYl6aLV
  • Upside in #CrudeOil struggling ahead of #OPEC meeting. Cartel likely to maintain wait and see approach. Get your #commodities update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/gNHHKoTUzm https://t.co/eF40DRIBJ5
  • #Gold had some big moves last week, and while vol is expected to die down a bit, it will be important to see if gold can hold its ground in the coming days/weeks. Get your #metals update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/N8a84hRnHN https://t.co/3fjodPHTDm
  • The S&P 500's refusal to hit a record and Dollar's anchor to range this past week is sign of summer liquidity conditions, but the quiet is not insurmountable. 'S&P 500 Record and Dollar Break Look to Stimulus and Trade to Override Seasonality' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/08/15/SP-500-Record-and-Dollar-Break-Look-to-Stimulus-and-Trade-to-Override-Seasonality-.html https://t.co/mbvPkdQfYl
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/DmhBkcMZBK https://t.co/kFk6ccU3Sk
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/aXSB0bG3y0
AUD Volatility Ahead? AUD/USD Eyes Australian Jobs & China GDP

AUD Volatility Ahead? AUD/USD Eyes Australian Jobs & China GDP

2020-07-15 23:00:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
Share:

Australian Dollar, Chinese GDP Data, Australia Employment Statistics, Coronavirus Update, US-China Tensions – TALKING POINTS

  • Australian Dollar volatility may pick up ahead of local jobs report, China GDP statistics
  • China tension with Australia, US overshadowed by growing hope for coronavirus vaccine
  • AUD/USD congestive interim may be coming to an end; directional bias may be revealed

Stocks on Wall Street ended on another happy note with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing 0.85, 0.91 and 0.59 percent higher, respectively. The S&P 500’s ascent was carried by Industrials, specifically Transportation under the Airlines subcomponent. This category had stocks like American Airlines Group and United Airlines Holding jump as high as 16.16 and 14.59 percent, respectively.

The sectoral breakdown suggests the move reflected hopes that containment of the Covid-19 pandemic would come sooner rather than later. That may have come from a seemingly growing sense that a successful coronavirus vaccine is close at hand.

An extension of the relief rally following US President Donald Trump’s briefing on China yesterday may be another source of optimism. His anti-China rhetoric and policies that followed appeared to be less aggressive than what markets had expected, and this in turned helped boost sentiment.

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading
Recommended by Dimitri Zabelin
Improve your trading with IG Client Sentiment Data
Get My Guide

Buoyancy around that development seems to be overshadowing concern about rising Sino-US geopolitical tensions. Foreign exchange markets reflected a risk-on tilt with the cycle-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars along with the petroleum-linked Norwegian Krone outperforming their G10 peers. The anti-risk Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc suffered with the haven-linked US Dollar.

The Canadian Dollar rose alongside other commodity-linked currencies following the Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Officials held the benchmark interest rate at 0.25 percent and said that economic activity has notably picked up following relaxed lockdown measures. The BOC said the economy likely bottomed out in April but will keep interest rates at their current levels until its inflation target is hit.

Thursday’s Asia-Pacific Trading Session

The Australian Dollar will likely be the most highly-watched and volatile currency ahead with local employment and Chinese Q2 GDP data on deck. As of July 15, right under the Norwegian Krone, AUD has the highest reading for implied volatility at 9.35, with its cycle-sensitive cousin NZD below it at 9.20. In Australia, officials are anticipating a significant improvement in employment statistics:

Participation Rate for JuneEstimate: 63.3%Prior: 62.9%

Unemployment Rate for JuneEstimate: 7.3%Prior: 7.1%

Employment change for JuneEstimate: 100.0kPrior: -227.7k

Signs of a recovery there could catapult the Australian Dollar higher amid signs of modest economic stabilization despite a spike of coronavirus cases in the state of Victoria as well as pockets in the United States. Better-than-expected jobs figures could also reduce the urgency of additional monetary stimulus. At its most recent policy-setting meeting, officials said in a statement that:

The Bank is prepared to scale-up its bond purchases again and will do whatever is necessary to ensure bond markets remain functional and to achieve the yield target for 3-year AGS. The yield target will remain in place until progress is being made towards the goals for full employment and inflation” – RBA.

Shortly after, China – Australia’s largest trading partner and the primary importer of its iron ore exports – will be releasing GDP data for Q2. Sino-Australia tensions have been rising and initially sent a chill up the spine of AUD traders. However, those geopolitical strains appear to be subordinate to the larger fundamental theme of the coronavirus and medical metrics that follow. Here are the expected figures for Chinese data:

GDP SA QoQEstimate: 9.6%Prior: -9.8%

GDP YoYEstimate: 2.4%Prior: -6.8%

GDP YTD YoYEstimate: -2.4%Prior: -6.8%

Other key statistics to be released include industrial production and retail sales data. Signs of recovery in the Asian giant’s growth trajectory could amplify AUD’s gains – or minimize its losses if unemployment data preceding it was disappointing. Despite originating out of China, the coronavirus will leave the regional powerhouse better off than most of its peers according to the IMF.

We are projecting that only a very small number of economies in Asia and the Pacific will actually grow this year, including China by 1.0 percent” – Speech on the Global and Asia Economic Outlook.

The cumulative hit to GDP growth over 2020–21 for emerging market and developing economies, excluding China, is expected to exceed that in advanced economies” – IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath

AUD/USD Analysis

AUD/USD has been stubbornly trading mostly within a trend-defining resistance range between 0.6911 and 0.7018. The reluctance to climb above the upper layer but hesitation to capitulate suggests a cautious optimism in the pair’s upside potential. The upcoming data points may be the catalyst AUD/USD has been waiting to act on, and could consequently determine the pair’s trajectory in the short to medium term.

AUD/USD – Daily Chart

Chart showing AUD/USD

AUD/USD chart created using TradingView

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitriTwitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.