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Australian Dollar Outlook Eyes Chart Setup, Crude Oil Looks Past OPEC

Australian Dollar Outlook Eyes Chart Setup, Crude Oil Looks Past OPEC

2020-04-13 23:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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Australian Dollar, AUD/USD, Crude Oil, Wall Street, Earnings – Asia Pacific Market Open

Australian Dollar Gains, Crude Oil Prices Struggle as Wall Street Eyes Earnings Season

The Australian Dollar gained on Monday and may continue to rise during Tuesday’s Asia Pacific trading session. Wall Street futures received a cautious bump during the White House daily press briefing after President Donald Trump said that they are “close to” a plan to open the country. This was followed by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin saying that they are ahead of schedule in delivering direct deposit checks.

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Market mood somewhat recovered during the North American trading session as local government bond yields climbed. Yet this was not enough to fully offset lows seen early into the day. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed -1.01% and -1.39% respectfully. Investors may be cautious ahead of the earnings season which carries with it numerous uncertainties about future growth prospects amid the coronavirus outbreak.

Crude oil prices brushed aside historical efforts undertaken by OPEC+ and other major oil-producing nations to reduce output by 10 million barrels per day. Traders may have seen these measures as bringing an end to the Saudi-Russia price war and helping to reduce the scope of further losses. There remains doubt over whether the extent of production curbs are enough to offset the anticipated drought in demand.

Meanwhile French President Emmanuel Macron announced that the country’s lockdown will be extended until May 11 to help contain COVID-19. This is as case growth rates slow in places like Spain, Italy, France and the United States. The World Health Organization (WHO) said that at this point the data is “yet unclear’ regarding whether recovered patients could be immune.

Tuesday’s Asia Pacific Trading Session

With that in mind, a relatively lackluster economic docket places the focus for foreign exchange markets on sentiment. The anti-risk Japanese Yen could be vulnerable here if a rosy session ensues. That may benefit the growth-linked Australian Dollar. Yet follow-through could be lacking as the world’s largest economy dives into first-quarter earnings season.

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Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

In the background, the Australian Dollar appears to be trading within a Rising Wedge which is a bearish reversal chart pattern. AUD/USD is slowly approaching key falling resistance from December which maintains the dominant downtrend in the medium term. A push above 0.6415 – the 61.8% Fibonacci extension – exposes that trend line. A descent through the floor of the wedge may open the door to a lasting reversal.

AUD/USD BULLISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -17% -6% -9%
Weekly -8% -2% -4%
What does it mean for price action?
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AUD/USD 4-Hour Chart

Australian Dollar Outlook Eyes Chart Setup, Crude Oil Looks Past OPEC

Chart Created Using TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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