We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @zerohedge: Is The Market Up This Week? Just Ask The Fed's Balance Sheet https://t.co/6p01J9yAZ8
  • $USD: "The US Dollar is making a last-ditch effort to cling onto a key technical support level after dropping 3% from its 2019 high as risk appetite roars and the Fed inflates its balance sheet." - via @DailyFX Full Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2019/12/14/us-dollar-outlook-fx-volatility-rising-from-extreme-lows-usd-levels-to-watch.html https://t.co/87cITJPVQa
  • The $NZD is testing resistance guiding the currency lower against its US counterpart for over two years. Will buyers prevail or be rejected yet again? Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/hRsbxhwotM https://t.co/ehlbb43gqd
  • very cool, very legal https://t.co/gsOxPiEdIw
  • $USDCAD is testing slope support into the close of the week with the immediate short bias at risk while above 1.3134/51. Get your USD/CAD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/eE9yrNEU80 https://t.co/mszY7ouYRF
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.0966 S2: 1.1041 S1: 1.1085 R1: 1.116 R2: 1.119 R3: 1.1264 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • The British Pound’s relief rally may still have some room to run: volatility in the $GBP has dropped back to levels typically associated with periods of ‘positive developments’ in the #Brexit process. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/uzXRd8y4ck https://t.co/Nxf6opYgLd
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 1.31% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.12% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.09% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.09% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.48% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/z0x9cPG1TN
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.40% Silver: 0.09% Oil - US Crude: -0.47% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fpuNos9jTO
  • RT @bbands: Most crypto currencies are at or near Bollinger Band Squeeze levels. Time to pay attention.
Australian Dollar Sinks, AUD/USD Downtrend in Focus on Jobs Miss

Australian Dollar Sinks, AUD/USD Downtrend in Focus on Jobs Miss

2019-11-14 00:30:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:

Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Points

  • Australian Dollar sinks on jobs report, AUD/USD downtrend eyed
  • Anti-risk Japanese Yen gained on US-China trade deal uncertainty
  • S&P 500 futures pointing to a cautiously pessimistic mood in Asia

Find out what the #1 mistake that traders make is and how you can fix it!

AUD/USD Sinks on Dismal Australian Jobs Report

The Australian Dollar sank in early Thursday Asia trade following October’s local jobs report. Australia lost 19.0k employed workers against expectations of a 15.0k rise. That was the most positions lost since September 2016 as the unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed to 5.3 percent. That latter was the highest rate since June 2018. The labor force participation rate also unexpectedly declined to 66.0% from 66.1%.

The latter might have reflected discouraged workers exiting the workforce altogether. In short, this does not bode well the Reserve Bank of Australia which has made its message clear about how closely it is watching the jobs market. Local bond yields declined, reflecting rising bets of a near-term rate cut from the RBA. Odds of a February 25bp reduction stand around 53 percent probability as implied by the futures market.

New Zealand Dollar Gains on RBNZ as Yen Rises on US-China Trade Deal Woes

On Wednesday, the New Zealand Dollar outperformed against its major counterparts after the RBNZ surprised markets and delivered a rate hold instead of a cut. The sentiment-linked currency struggled to add onto its upside momentum despite Wall Street ending the day cautiously higher. There, the S&P 500 was jawboned by fundamentally positive and negative news which made for a rocky session.

Initially, risk appetite improved as Fed Chairman testified to Congress. He said that their policy is appropriate as long as the economy stays on track even though the baseline outlook is favorable despite “noteworthy risks”. In short, this could mean that rate hikes may not be on the table for some time with inflation running slightly under target. Despite this, the anti-risk Japanese Yen aimed cautiously higher.

Hours later, updates on the US-China trade war front spooked investors. Reports crossed the wires that the phase one trade deal “hit a snag”. The key issue is regarding the $50b in agricultural purchases US President Donald Trump claims China will make. However, the latter has made it clear that it not only wants the former to hold off on raising tariffs against it, but also to begin unwinding them.

Thursday’s Asia Pacific Trading Session

S&P 500 futures are pointing cautiously higher as Thursday’s Asia Pacific trading session gets underway. This may translate into a broadly pessimistic mood in financial markets which may keep fueling gains in the Yen. The Australian Dollar will now be looking to Chinese industrial production and retail sales data. A softer-than-expected outcome may weaken the AUD given its nature as the market’s favored China-liquid proxy.

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

Following the jobs report, AUD/USD tumbled through a near-term rising support channel from the beginning of October. This followed a failed attempt to breach the falling resistance channel from December 2018 after prices topped earlier this month. With that in mind, the Aussie could be on its way towards revising lows the pair reached in August, September and October.

This is as IG Client Sentiment is offering an AUD/USD bearish contrarian outlook. Retail trader data shows that about 59.09 percent of Aussie traders are net long. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Join me later today at 1:00 GMT as I cover what the prevailing trends in market positioning are revealing about the outlook for the major currencies!

Chart of the Day – AUD/USD

Australian Dollar Sinks, AUD/USD Downtrend in Focus on Jobs Miss

Chart Created Using TradingView

FX Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.