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S&P 500, Crude Oil Rally on Italy Budget News, Fed. JPY May Fall

S&P 500, Crude Oil Rally on Italy Budget News, Fed. JPY May Fall

Daniel Dubrovsky, Contributing Senior Strategist


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Asia Pacific Market Open – Italian Budget, Crude Oil, S&P 500, Japanese Yen, NZD/USD

  • Global benchmark stock indexes climbed as US Thanksgiving Holiday upon us
  • European equities brushed off Italian budget news, crude oil prices rebounded
  • NZD/USD short still in play, Japanese Yen may extend selloff if Asia stocks rise

Check out our 4Q forecast for crude oil in the DailyFX Trading Guides page

The S&P 500 pared some of its gains as US markets go offline for the Thanksgiving holiday break. Sentiment was generally positive, carrying over from Asia and Europe. The Euro Stoxx 50 finished the day about 1.21% higher, despite the European Commission inching closer towards imposing financial sanctions on Italy. It noted that their 2019 budget is in “particularly serious non-compliance”.

Optimism may have been as a result of reports that Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini could be open to spending revisions in order to avoid fines. Furthermore, market mood was bolstered by a report from MNI that the Fed may pause its cycle of rate hikes as early as spring. The report cited senior people from the central bank.

Sentiment-linked crude oil prices benefited from the improvement in risk appetite, rising about 2.3% after its worst single day performance since February 2016. The commodity was also underpinned by an update that Saudi Arabian oil production increased to a record 10.9 million barrels per day earlier this month. But, the commodity still remains in a dominant downtrend. Furthermore, cuts from OPEC may be undermined by Russia ahead.

Pro-risk currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars appreciated against their major counterparts. The rebound in NZD/USD was not enough to trigger my stop after entering short at 0.6788. Fundamentally, the pair may resume its dominant downtrend given a more hawkish Fed and risks to global growth. In fact, OECD lowered 2019 estimates for the latter from 3.7% to 3.5%.

As Thursday’s Asia Pacific trading session got underway, Japanese October CPI crossed the wires in line with expectations and the Yen was little changed. The anti-risk JPY will probably continue focusing on risk trends instead. With that in mind, the currency may extend its losses from Wednesday’s session should equities trade higher. S&P 500 futures are pointing cautiously higher, suggesting this might be the case.

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Asia Pacific Trading Session

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here

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--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.