Bank Research Consensus Weekly 10.22.12
Interest Rates: Rates Edging Higher on Growth Optimism
Peter Possing Andersen, Senior Analyst, Danske Bank
The long end of the rate curves moved higher this week. This was driven by increasing growth optimism, which was partly fuelled by a better-than-expected run in Q3 earnings reports but also by improving economic data from the US and China.All in all, incoming data have provided further evidence that the global economy is bottoming out. This is particularly evident in the US, where the economic surprise index has moved into very positive territory over the past couple of weeks, but also in emerging markets and in Europe the economic surprise indices moved higher this week.
Is Chinese Growth Beginning to Stabilize?
John E. Silvia, Chief Economist, Wells Fargo
As widely expected, the real GDP data reported this week in China indicated that the economy slowed further. Specifically, the year-over-year rate of real GDP growth in the third quarter slowed to 7.4 percent—the slowest rate of growth since the global financial crisis—from 7.6 percent during the previous quarter (see chart on front page).
Canada – Household Debt Higher Than We Thought
Diana Petramala, Economist, TD Bank Financial Group
Arguably, the juiciest release this week was Statistics Canada’s release of revised National balance sheet data. The revisions showed that the household debt-to-income ratio is 163%, well above the 152% previously reported. The media grabbed onto the fact that the Canadian debt-to-income ratio now tops the pre-recession peak reached by U.S. households.
Compiled by David Song, Currency Analyst
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