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  • The @ecb will likely boost its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program at Thursday’s meeting of its Governing Council; a move that could give the #Euro a lift. Get your currencies market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/I4PbmJNG1z https://t.co/hu6Ld1KdDB
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  • The ongoing contraction in US production may keep #oilprices afloat in June as crude output falls to its lowest level since October 2018. Get your crude #oil market update from @DavidJSong https://t.co/jj1bMLX0DF https://t.co/O9NOqbfHkb
  • watching the #SpaceX launch🍿
  • Major investment bank models have touted USD selling, given the outperformance in US equities relative to its counterparts over the past month. How is this likely to impact the month-end rebalancing? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/MtNrHmXZpD https://t.co/d00z4019XE
  • The medium-term #gold outlook still seems favorable as the #Fed, #ECB and more keep rates around 0. Immediate event risk ahead includes the #RBA and #BoC interest rate decisions, US jobs data and Brexit. Get your gold market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/ABXy78LmUn https://t.co/rCALcGaKOL
  • The trio of central banks overseeing the commodity currencies have already cut their main rates to all-time lows. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/OSUXrN5P3j https://t.co/Cxt86jl28N
  • The Japanese Yen fell for a third consecutive week with price testing resistance into June open. Here are the levels that matter on the $USDJPY weekly technical chart. Get your #currencies market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/1QPXP0g7Ew https://t.co/WUtXHoRoQX
Bank Research Consensus Weekly 07.30.12

Bank Research Consensus Weekly 07.30.12

2012-07-30 13:40:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:
Bank_Research_Consensus_Weekly_07.30.12_body_BankResearch.png, Bank Research Consensus Weekly 07.30.12

Revising Down Euro Area Growth

Anders Møller Lumholtz, Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

We expect the euro area to remain in recession in Q3 and that we will have to wait until 2013 before we see positive growth rates. For 2012 as a whole, we expect a GDP print of -0.3% and for 2013 we forecast growth at 0.5%.The deteriorating demand in the euro area is broad based. Fiscal consolidation continues to weigh down on growth while low business and consumer sentiment is a drag on private consumption and investments.In particular tightening credit conditions and financial fragmentation in the euro area banking sector will continue to weigh on growth. The next policy response will most likely target these issues, but they are hard to diminish as they are a result of differences in sovereign risk. One option could be granting ESM a banking license.

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Draghi’s Determination Twist Rates

John E. Silvia, Chief Economist, Wells Fargo

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s determined statement that the ECB was prepared to “do whatever it takes to preserve the euro” sent Spanish, and many other European nations’ interest rates sharply lower on Thursday. The implication is that the ECB is prepared to use its “unlimited” balance sheet to purchase European sovereign debt, which has sent many investors temporarily to the sideline, or to the other side of the trade.

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U.S. – Faster, Higher, Stronger or Slower, Lower, Weaker

James Marple, Senior Economist, TD Bank Financial Group

There continues to be somewhat of a disconnect between the signals sent by the Bank of Canada on interest rates and the expectations being priced into Canadian fixed income markets. This week, the central bank continued to use language signaling that the next rate move will be in the upward direction, even if it may be several months away. Yet, rate expectations as measured by BAX futures contracts continue to price in interest rate cuts by year-end. Furthermore, the Government of Canada 2-year bond yield remained below 1% – implying no change in rates over the next few years.

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Compiled by David Song, Currency Analyst

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