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  • The #Euro is the big driver here for DXY as it is 57% of the index. It is rising now and trying to break above the March 27 high at 11147. Get your $EURUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/73SaL5AeXD
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/EIC9YqfTec
  • Anybody else think that casting directors in movies are some of the most underrated people when it comes to giving a film/series credit?
  • No https://t.co/EoBltaP17k
  • Crude #oilprices may face heightened liquidation pressure as the cycle-sensitive #commodity finds itself under the pressure of resilient resistance and a vulnerable, multi-week rising channel. Get your crude #oil market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/cGPX4qcOH1 https://t.co/0U4JMJVFuf
  • The @ecb will likely boost its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program at Thursday’s meeting of its Governing Council; a move that could give the #Euro a lift. Get your currencies market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/I4PbmJNG1z https://t.co/hu6Ld1KdDB
  • $GBPUSD doesn’t have the cleanest set of technical indications, but #USD may give indications if it can break its trading range via the $DXY. Get your currencies market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/PrC9wAaXvU https://t.co/vHYHflwqR3
  • The ongoing contraction in US production may keep #oilprices afloat in June as crude output falls to its lowest level since October 2018. Get your crude #oil market update from @DavidJSong https://t.co/jj1bMLX0DF https://t.co/O9NOqbfHkb
  • watching the #SpaceX launch🍿
  • Major investment bank models have touted USD selling, given the outperformance in US equities relative to its counterparts over the past month. How is this likely to impact the month-end rebalancing? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/MtNrHmXZpD https://t.co/d00z4019XE
Bank Research Consensus Weekly 07.02.12

Bank Research Consensus Weekly 07.02.12

2012-07-02 13:45:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:
Bank_Research_Consensus_Weekly_07.02.12_body_BankResearch.png, Bank Research Consensus Weekly 07.02.12

Banks/Economics: The State of Dis-Union: Balkanisation & Banking Union

Huw Van Steenis, Arnaud M Mares, Alice Timperley, Morgan Stanley

We're concerned the balkanization of banking markets will act as a drag on lending, economic recovery and be a source of instability. We find the current EU proposals for Banking Union insufficiently federal to address this. Our scorecard assesses the proposals & investment implications.

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Market Response Says A Lot About Expectations

Lars Tranberg Rasmussen, Senior Analyst, Danske Bank

Judging from the price action this Friday morning, the EU Summit delivered more than what was priced into the markets. Expectations for the Summit were low, as these summits usually deliver little but big headlines and as Germany had signalled that it would not give in on risk sharing before the path of establishing centralised European controls over national fiscal policy is irreversible.

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Will the ECB and BoE Ease Further?

John E. Silvia, Chief Economist, Wells Fargo

On July 5, the European Central Bank (ECB) holds a regularly scheduled policy meeting; there is speculation that the Governing Council could cut rates. Although the decision is likely to be finely balanced, we look for the ECB to reduce its main policy rate from 1.00 percent to an all-time low of 0.75 percent. Recent monthly data suggest the rate of economic contraction in the overall euro area has intensified in the second quarter, and fiscal consolidation and uncertainties related to the sovereign debt crisis likely will lead to weak economic activity for some time. Moreover, ECB President Draghi sounded unusually dovish in his news conference following the June 6 policy meeting.

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U.S. – European Leaders Show Some Grit

Alistair Bentley, Economist,TD Bank Financial Group

As we approach the first week of July, the major themes underpinning the global and domestic economy remain remarkably unchanged from last year. Europe continues to stumble from one crisis to the next, deleveraging is still holding back the pace of U.S. growth and the direction of future fiscal policy from Washington remains as clear as mud (see our latest Quarterly Economic Forecast for more details). This week showed a little glimmer of hope that next year may bring greener pastures.

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Compiled by David Song, Currency Analyst

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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