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  • The Hang Seng Tech index tumbled 5.4% amid intensified fears about China's regulatory risk on various sectors. - Tencent (-6.2%) - Alibaba (-5.0%) - Meituan (-13.9%) - Hang Seng Index (-2.5%)
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/A0w6mhPMvH
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.33%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 79.17%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/AY4wL5b1NV
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/NrcUfXKP8J
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.05% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.00% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.03% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/UwJz4Gv6hT
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.12% FTSE 100: -0.02% Germany 30: -0.04% US 500: -0.16% Wall Street: -0.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/cGDe8jiSqf
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/rJznrXkcYz https://t.co/ne0HPR7lO2
  • China considers levies on steel exports to tame domestic prices - BBG
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here: https://t.co/eILWbFgHRE https://t.co/lS2YP1HLe5
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.19% Gold: -0.06% Silver: -0.28% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/KmaQV410F5
Bank Research Consensus Weekly 04.02.12

Bank Research Consensus Weekly 04.02.12

David Song, Strategist
Bank_Research_Consensus_Weekly_04.02.12_body_BankResearch.png, Bank Research Consensus Weekly 04.02.12

The End of the Big Rise?

Gerard Minack, Morgan Stanley

Australia's superb macro performance over the past two decades has been assisted by two major tailwinds: rising leverage and rising export prices. Both trends seem set to reverse. The prospective shift to falling leverage - particularly by households - and a turn in the terms of trade (export prices relative to import prices) will have important implications for investors. These changes will likely reduce Australia's resilience to external shock, are important adverse structural shifts for sectors of the equity market, point to significantly lower nominal profits growth and will likely see the currency weaken over the medium term.

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FX: Has the Big Euro-Short Unwind Started?

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst, Danske Bank

Every Monday we publish an update on positioning in the FX market. We use the socalled IMM data that are part of the Commitments of Traders reports published by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The IMM data provide a breakdown of open futures positions on the Internal Money Market (IMM) division of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Hence, the data are just a small sample of the otherwise huge global OTC FX market, but still they seem to give a very precise overview of positioning in the market.

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Bernanke Remains Cautious

John E. Silvia, Chief Economist, Wells Fargo

Ben Bernanke’s speech to the National Association of Business Economics was quite a bit more cautious than the general tenor of most recent economic reports. The Fed Chairman seemed to cast doubt on the veracity and durability of recent employment gains and suggested that the recent slide in the unemployment rate may simply have been a catch up for some earlier inconsistencies to the upside. The key takeaway from his talk, as well as his lecture at George Washington University, is that he is keeping an open mind on additional securities purchases, which he feels have made a meaningful effect on promoting growth and recovery.

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U.S. – Squaring the Circle on Jobs and Growth

Alistair Bentley, Economist,TD Bank Financial Group

This week was relatively light in terms of data releases in the U.S. and the calendar was dominated by housing market data. Housing starts, existing and new home sales all came slightly below expectations. However, the softness was chalked up to month-to-month volatility and did not alter the market perception that a modest improvement remains under way in the housing market. So, despite the negative surprises, these reckonings did not rock the markets. What did move the markets this week were the manufacturing purchasing managers’ indexes of the euro zone and China. The former dropped to 48.7 in March, down from 49.3 in February, pushed down by contractions in both the German and French indexes. In China, the HSBC/Markit PMI came down to 48.1 in March, which put it below the 50-point mark that separates contraction from expansion for the fifth consecutive month. These indicators suggested that manufacturing activity is having a hard time gaining momentum globally, which combined with the recent spike in crude-oil prices, casts a shadow on the short-term global economic outlook.

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Compiled by David Song, Currency Analyst

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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