US Dollar Set for Big Moves - Here are the Strategies We’re Watching
The US Dollar is likely to see strong moves in the days ahead—particularly versus the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand Dollars. We like these trading strategies.
Traders have kept the US currency in a tight trading range versus the Euro and other major counterparts, but that may change on a big week of economic event risk. And indeed volatility prices have risen considerably ahead of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report.
The US Dollar trades near important highs as traders are pricing in a roughly 50 percent chance that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September. Yet any major disappointments in Friday’s labor data could force a significant repricing and USD sell-off.
Forex Volatility Prices Rise Ahead of Key Economic Data
Data source: Bloomberg, DailyFX Calculations
High volatility risks—especially in Commodity Bloc pairs—keep our trading focus on the volatility-friendly Breakout2 strategy, while the potential for trend shifts in other USD pairs suggests in certain commodity-linked USD pairs, while the potential for trend shifts in the Euro/US Dollar and Dollar/Japanese Yen pairs suggests the Momentum2 system could do well.
See the table below for full detail on market conditions and preferred trading strategies.
DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias
Understand the Breakout2 Trading System via our previous article
Auto trade the trend reversal-trading Momentum2 system via our previous article.
Trade with strong trends via our Momentum1 Trading System
Use our counter-trend Range2 Trading system
--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.
Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.
Range High – 90-day closing high.
Range Low – 90-day closing low.
Last – Current market price.
Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.
OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
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