News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • video of today's webinar posted + ready to go. $USD the focus, $Gold got a look, too (~25 mins in) https://t.co/ogyrmiJDey
  • Italy's Franco: GDP likely negative in Q1, but positive in Q2
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.33% Silver: -0.09% Oil - US Crude: -0.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/hrEmoKJmOC
  • Canadian #Dollar Forecast: $USDCAD Breakout Potential– #Loonie Levels - https://t.co/yo2PAylSpr https://t.co/YGmglD6lDh
  • Italy's Finance Minister Franco: - We expect Q1 GDP to fall 1.2% from Q4 2020 - Recovery plan will be presented to EU commission on time $EUR
  • The Nasdaq 100-tracking QQQ ETF recorded its largest single-day outflow since October on Friday. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/TFWOqReZiA https://t.co/w18wvwaw00
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.55%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 80.61%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/osKbtin36O
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.24% FTSE 100: 0.21% France 40: 0.01% US 500: -0.83% Wall Street: -0.89% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/6Vjfga9BAY
  • $EURCAD has continued to strengthen today, rising from below 1.5100 by over 50 pips to currently trade above 1.5150, at a six week high. $EUR $CAD https://t.co/sSlYtGCF4r
  • After rising back above the 1.60% level to a high around 1.63% earlier today, US 10yr Treasury yields have moved back lower. They are now trading around an intraday low of 1.56%. $USD https://t.co/5hQglZl4fU
Forex Volatility Risks Fall, but Keep Watch on Gold-Linked Currencies

Forex Volatility Risks Fall, but Keep Watch on Gold-Linked Currencies

David Rodriguez, Head of Product

- Forex volatility prices drop considerably, suggest US Dollar to consolidate

- Continued moves in Commodity Bloc nonetheless Breakout2 trading system

- We look to the Momentum2 trading strategy in other USD pairs

A sharp drop in forex volatility prices suggests that recent US Dollar gains may slow, but price momentum leaves us in favor of trend-following trades in key pairs.

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index recently hit its highest levels in three months, and overall market trends clearly favor continued USD gains. Yet a notable drop in FX volatility prices/expectations shows that few expect the Greenback to match its current pace, and indeed this may invite some consolidation in the FX majors—notably in the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD

Forex Volatility Prices Tumble to Fresh Lows, Point to US Dollar Consolidation

Forex Volatility Risks Fall, but Keep Watch on Gold-Linked Currencies

Data source: Bloomberg, DailyFX Calculations

Volatility risks nonetheless remain high in the Commodity Bloc—the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian Dollars—as we see substantial declines in gold prices and sympathetic moves in other commodity markets.

Thus our focus remains on the Breakout2 strategy in those currency pairs, while the trend-following Momentum2 system could continue to do well in other USD counterparts.

A key caveat is that our trading biases could change if we see a similar drop in Commodity Bloc volatility, but until that happens we’ll stick to our recent calls.

See the table below for full detail on market conditions and preferred trading strategies.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

Forex Volatility Risks Fall, but Keep Watch on Gold-Linked Currencies

Understand the Breakout2 Trading System via our previous article

Auto trade the trend reversal-trading Momentum2system via our previous article.

Trade with strong trends via our Momentum1 Trading System

Use our counter-trend Range2 Trading system

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to David’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES