News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @FxWestwater: New Zealand Dollar Forecast: $NZDUSD Unscathed as #RBNZ Holds Course Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/14/New-Zealand-Dollar-Forecast-NZDUSD-Unscathed-as-RBNZ-Holds-Course.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/5Qh0nRIKDa
  • The Euro has regained lost ground against its major counterparts recently. Are further gains in the offing or is this just a short-term countertrend correction? EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/NZD key levels. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/BK1ezTva9R https://t.co/JcrxdRvyaX
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.64% Silver: 0.31% Gold: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/VrRa1mL8ge
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.15% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.07% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.02% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.01% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/zQkfCDgAJQ
  • $NZDUSD just a touch lower after the #RBNZ rate announcement after policy settings were left unchanged https://t.co/i2BolXsSrE https://t.co/dxWNxNJ076
  • RBNZ: Less government bond issuance placing less pressure on yields, weekly changes in LSAP don't represent policy shift -BBG
  • RBNZ: Growth outlook remains highly uncertain, committee saw risks to economic outlook as remaining balanced -BBG
  • RBNZ: Meeting requirements will take time and patience, assessments of remit change to be included in May FSR -BBG
  • RBNZ: Prepared to lower rate if required, will maintain stimulatory settings until CPI at midpoint -BBG
  • RBNZ maintains benchmark interest rate at 0.25% and bond purchase program at NZD100b -BBG $NZDUSD #NZD
Dollar Likely to Hit New Highs, but Caution Advised For key Reasons

Dollar Likely to Hit New Highs, but Caution Advised For key Reasons

David Rodriguez, Head of Product

- US Dollar surges into year-end, likely to hit fresh peaks

- Forex volatility prices have tumbled but point to big moves in 2015

- Trading looks risky in low liquidity conditions, cutting positions in week ahead

The US Dollar is poised to hit fresh highs in the week and year ahead. Forex volatility prices may have tumbled, but expectations point to big moves in 2015.

See the video above for the full rundown and the chart and table below for currency-specific outlook.

Forex Volatility Prices T

Dollar Likely to Hit New Highs, but Caution Advised For key Reasons

Data source: Bloomberg, DailyFX Calculations

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

Dollar Likely to Hit New Highs, but Caution Advised For key ReasonsDollar Likely to Hit New Highs, but Caution Advised For key Reasons

Automate our SSI-based trading strategies via Mirror Trader free of charge

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to David’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES