Dollar Surges - We Like Buying Until these Factors Change
- Strong correlations to volatility mean that the Dollar could continue higher
- We’re eyeing key Breakout trades in USD pairs ahead
The US Dollar has surged to fresh yearly highs versus the British Pound, Japanese Yen, and Euro. Why? And more importantly – how might we trade from here?
Traders continue buying into Dollar gains versus G3 counterparts; the surge versus the EUR, GBP, and JPY leaves the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index at its highest in 12 months. Yet the gains have been unusually concentrated. By comparison, the Greenback actually remains in a tight range versus the Australian Dollar and many Emerging Markets currencies.
The fact that the Dollar remains in an uptrend versus the EUR, JPY, and GBP seems the reason it continues higher. We can see this as the USDOLLAR has become especially correlated to volatility prices, and the US currency could accelerate higher on any further gains in FX market volatility.
Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index Very Closely Linked with Volatility Prices
Data source: Bloomberg, DailyFX Calculations
Thus our strategy is admittedly simple: stay long and buy into USD gains as long as volatility continues higher. Our DailyFX Volatility Indices trade near key highs and emphasize the fact that FX traders continue to pay more to bet on/hedge against big moves across major currency pairs.
FX Derivatives Traders Continue to Bet on/Hedge against Big Currency Moves
Data source: Bloomberg, DailyFX Calculations
See the table below for full strategy rundown on a per-currency pair basis and keep track of changing conditions with future e-mail updates via my distribution list.
DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias
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--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.
Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.
Range High – 90-day closing high.
Range Low – 90-day closing low.
Last – Current market price.
Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.
OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.