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Dollar at Critical Support, and We See Strong Risk of a Bounce

Dollar at Critical Support, and We See Strong Risk of a Bounce

2014-06-30 15:20:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
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- Short-term volatility prices jump ahead of critical event forex event risk

- US Dollar trades near significant support ahead of important data

- Divergence in key Dollar pairs warns that a reversal may be imminent

The US Dollar trades at key support versus the Euro and other counterparts ahead of big forex event risk. Might we finally see significant price reversals?

FX Options markets are ramping up bets on sharp price moves as we await key data out of the US and a European Central Bank interest rate decision. All the while, the Euro trades at critical price resistance at the confluence of its 200-day Simple Moving Average and key congestion near $1.3675.

Forex Volatility Prices Jump Noticeably Ahead of key Event Risk

Dollar at Critical Support, and We See Strong Risk of a Bounce

Data source: Bloomberg, DailyFX Calculations

Yet in broad terms we see a number of signs that the Dollar may remain in its larger range versus the Euro and other counterparts. While the DailyFX 1-week Volatility Index has risen noticeably, 3-month and 1-year indices continue near record lows. In other words: few are betting on a Dollar breakdown here.

The beginning of the new month, calendar quarter, and second half of the year leaves us ripe for new currency trends. If the Dollar does indeed break down here, we could be at the start of a larger EURUSD uptrend and USDJPY turn lower. Given that currencies have stuck to such tight trading ranges heading into this week, however, this seems relatively unlikely. And indeed we maintain our calls for buying major currencies at support and selling at resistance (i.e. range trading).

See the table below for full rundown and keep track of changing conditions with future e-mail updates via my distribution list.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

Dollar at Critical Support, and We See Strong Risk of a BounceDollar at Critical Support, and We See Strong Risk of a Bounce

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--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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