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Dollar Breaks Down Ahead of FOMC, but Continued Losses Unlikely

Dollar Breaks Down Ahead of FOMC, but Continued Losses Unlikely

David Rodriguez, Head of Product

- Dollar breaks key lows ahead of FOMC decision

- Large declines in US interest rates very USD bullish

- Low volatility prices suggests further losses less likely

The US Dollar has thundered lower to start the week’s trade on similarly dramatic moves in interest rate markets, but how does this change our overall trading strategies in the days ahead of the FOMC policy decision?

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce policy and new forward guidance on interest rates on Sep 18, and traders are apparently making a statement ahead of the highly-anticipated decision. The 10-year US Treasury Yield thundered below trendline support and now stands near month-to-date lows, while the December, 2015 Eurodollars (interest rate) futures contract saw a massive +20pt move—its largest in 2 years.

These Dollar negatives explain recent USD weakness, but how likely is it to continue lower?

Forex Volatility Prices Rise ahead of FOMC but Remained Subdued

forex_strategy_outlook_US_Dollar_losses_less_likely_body_Picture_1.png, Dollar Breaks Down Ahead of FOMC, but Continued Losses Unlikely

Source: OTC FX Options Prices from Bloomberg; DailyFX Calculations

The fact is that overall volatility prices remain low, and it seems as though traders aren’t necessarily betting on big continuation in USD declines. Our 1-week volatility index is predictably elevated ahead of the FOMC decision, but longer-dated options show muted expectations.

Our trend-following Momentum2 system thus remains our favored system as it profits on US Dollar declines. Past performance is clearly not indicative of future results, but if the USD reversal does come we think our sentiment-based strategy stands a chance to continue doing well.

Our systems have likewise done well on key Yen pairs. View the table below on our overall market biases on specific currency pairs, and sign up for e-mail updates via my distribution list for any changes to our preferences.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

forex_strategy_outlook_US_Dollar_losses_less_likely_body_Picture_2.png, Dollar Breaks Down Ahead of FOMC, but Continued Losses Unlikelyforex_strategy_outlook_US_Dollar_losses_less_likely_body_Picture_3.png, Dollar Breaks Down Ahead of FOMC, but Continued Losses Unlikely

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--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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