News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrLeetw https://t.co/fs0ldanq41
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/rJznrX2BzZ https://t.co/Wfr6fQ9PTr
  • Of note, worth being cautious on the authenticity of this report given the source https://t.co/i9jcU0OQF4
  • Sources close to the Chinese Government have told Asia Markets a deal that will see China Evergrande (3333 HK) restructured into three seperate entities is currently being finalised by the Chinese Communist Party and could be announced within days.
  • Shadow MPC as hawkish as ever - They have been calling for the BoE to end QE early since June - Often a big difference in what people think a central bank should do and will do https://t.co/RAakSI8gI6
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqi8ZEe https://t.co/XfrcQXJu0Z
  • IFO lowers German 2021 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 3.3% - Raises 2022 forecast to 5.1% from 4.3%
  • 🇿🇦 Inflation Rate YoY (AUG) Actual: 4.9% Expected: 4.8% Previous: 4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • 🇹🇼 Unemployment Rate (AUG) Actual: 4.08% Previous: 4.36% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Heads Up:🇹🇼 Unemployment Rate (AUG) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 4.36% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
We Like Trading the US Dollar Break Higher but When?

We Like Trading the US Dollar Break Higher but When?

David Rodriguez, Head of Product

Article Summary: The US Dollar continues to hold key support levels versus the Japanese Yen and other majors, but does that mean it breaks higher? Here are the factors we’re watching.

DailyFX PLUS System Trading Signals The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) continues to hold key lows and position itself for a potentially major move higher, but the all-important question is ‘When?’

Last week we claimed that the most important factor in US Dollar trading was forex volatility. In short: the Greenback tends to do poorly during very quiet market conditions and do well as markets begin moving sharply.

The problem with our Dollar-bullish forecast remains the same: forex volatility prices continue to trade near year-to-date lows, and we view a US Dollar break higher as unlikely in current market conditions.

Forex Volatility Prices Continue Trading near Year-to-Date Lows

forex_trading_us_dollar_japanese_yen_reversal_higher_body_Picture_1.png, We Like Trading the US Dollar Break Higher but When?

Source: OTC FX Options Prices from Bloomberg; DailyFX Calculations

What could change that? There are a handful of key events on the US economic calendar which could bring sharp FX moves, and indeed we will maintain our “wait and see” approach on key US Dollar levels.

With the Japanese Yen in particular, there is key resistance in the ¥99.20-100 zone, and a USDJPY break above could signal that a broader Dollar reversal is in play. Alternatively a break below its 200-day Simple Moving Average and key lows near ¥95.20 would put a clear dent in our Dollar-bullish forecast. View full technical forecast for the USDJPY.

This “wait and see” approach doesn’t work especially well for our sentiment-based trading strategies, as our strategy biases can and likely will change quite rapidly if this is indeed a key turning point for the Greenback. In the meantime we’ll tread lightly, but sign up for e-mail updates via my distribution list for any updates.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

forex_trading_us_dollar_japanese_yen_reversal_higher_body_Picture_2.png, We Like Trading the US Dollar Break Higher but When?forex_trading_us_dollar_japanese_yen_reversal_higher_body_Picture_3.png, We Like Trading the US Dollar Break Higher but When?

Automate our SSI-based trading strategies via Mirror Trader free of charge

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to David’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Contact David via

Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES