Article Summary: The US Dollar continues to hold key support levels versus the Japanese Yen and other majors, but does that mean it breaks higher? Here are the factors we’re watching.
DailyFX PLUS System Trading Signals – The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) continues to hold key lows and position itself for a potentially major move higher, but the all-important question is ‘When?’
Last week we claimed that the most important factor in US Dollar trading was forex volatility. In short: the Greenback tends to do poorly during very quiet market conditions and do well as markets begin moving sharply.
The problem with our Dollar-bullish forecast remains the same: forex volatility prices continue to trade near year-to-date lows, and we view a US Dollar break higher as unlikely in current market conditions.
Forex Volatility Prices Continue Trading near Year-to-Date Lows
Source: OTC FX Options Prices from Bloomberg; DailyFX Calculations
What could change that? There are a handful of key events on the US economic calendar which could bring sharp FX moves, and indeed we will maintain our “wait and see” approach on key US Dollar levels.
With the Japanese Yen in particular, there is key resistance in the ¥99.20-100 zone, and a USDJPY break above could signal that a broader Dollar reversal is in play. Alternatively a break below its 200-day Simple Moving Average and key lows near ¥95.20 would put a clear dent in our Dollar-bullish forecast. View full technical forecast for the USDJPY.
This “wait and see” approach doesn’t work especially well for our sentiment-based trading strategies, as our strategy biases can and likely will change quite rapidly if this is indeed a key turning point for the Greenback. In the meantime we’ll tread lightly, but sign up for e-mail updates via my distribution list for any updates.
DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias
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--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.
Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.
Range High – 90-day closing high.
Range Low – 90-day closing low.
Last – Current market price.
Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.
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