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One Key Reason Dollar May Head Lower

One Key Reason Dollar May Head Lower

2013-07-22 14:00:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
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Article Summary: The US Dollar has started the week lower, and we see one key reason the US currency could continue to fresh lows versus the Euro and other major forex counterparts.

DailyFX PLUS System Trading Signals This US Dollar tends to do best during times of strong market volatility and weaken during periods of lower volatility. It’s shaping up to be another week of US Dollar losses as a sharp drop in volatility leaves the safe-haven US currency out of favor through quiet market conditions.

Last week we wrote that our retail trader sentiment-based Momentum2 strategy stood to do well selling into US Dollar weakness, and indeed it is currently floating gains in a number of USD-short positions. Can that continue?

Forex Options Market Volatility Prices From 2012-2013

us_dollar_forex_strategy_outlook_body_Picture_1.png, One Key Reason Dollar May Head Lower

Source: OTC FX Options Prices, CBOE Data from Bloomberg; DailyFX Calculations

Our sentiment-based trading strategies stand to do well if this is indeed the start of a larger Dollar pullback; the Momentum2 strategy is perhaps in the best position to take advantage of the short-term swing.

They key caveat is that said strategy tends to do best during times of strong market trends. If the US currency sticks to choppy trading ranges versus the Euro and other counterparts, our SSI-based strategies may suffer.

Sign up for e-mail updates via my distribution list for any updates this week and in the future, and see the full strategy preference breakdown in the table below:

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

us_dollar_forex_strategy_outlook_body_Picture_2.png, One Key Reason Dollar May Head Lowerus_dollar_forex_strategy_outlook_body_Picture_3.png, One Key Reason Dollar May Head Lower

Automate our SSI-based trading strategies via Mirror Trader free of charge

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and other reports from this author via e-mail, sign up to David’s e-mail distribution list via this link.

Contact David via

Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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