News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.35% Germany 30: -0.38% France 40: -0.39% Wall Street: -1.09% US 500: -1.38% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/ee1csUe04G
  • NASDAQ EXTENDS FALL, LAST DOWN ABOUT 2.1% Damn this Apple Watch is good... where Jay Powell at? https://t.co/8yXsJKehxy
  • France daily Covid cases rises above 13,000, highest since lockdown - BBG
  • GBP falling to fresh sessions lows following UK PM Johnson's warning that the UK is on the verge of having a second wave of Covid-19
  • Dow Jones pivots higher with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq owing to consumer sentiment data. Get your #indices market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/MN3YH5WNMV https://t.co/ELJkNhn6LK
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.14%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 70.68%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/wQSpYPp9wY
  • US equities drop to session lows as Speaker Pelosi states that she is sticking with demands for a $2.2 trillion stimulus bill
  • US #Dollar Outlook: $USD Grinds into Weekly Support – $DXY Levels - https://t.co/Teg9aN8GHQ https://t.co/bdifryFcSD
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.77% Silver: 0.39% Oil - US Crude: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/4rXyUYBYzw
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.36% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.31% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.05% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.11% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.14% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/LZ5R3mMJhS
Trading Strategy Outlook Shifts as FX Volatility Prices Sell Off

Trading Strategy Outlook Shifts as FX Volatility Prices Sell Off

2013-07-10 21:00:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
Share:

Article summary: An important pullback in forex volatility expectations warns that currencies may continue to see smaller moves through the days ahead, and indeed that means we’ll change our outlook on our trading strategies.

Forex Options Market Volatility Prices From 2012-2013

forex_strategy_update_us_dollar_trading_body_Picture_1.png, Trading Strategy Outlook Shifts as FX Volatility Prices Sell Off

Data Source: Bloomberg, Chart Source: R

In concrete terms this means moving away from strategies that depend on strong volatility to do well. In the case of our DailyFX PLUS Trading Strategies, that’s mostly Breakout2 and to a lesser extent Momentum2/”Tidal Shift”.

Momentum2 stands to do well if this is indeed the start of a short-term US Dollar turnaround, as it is likely to sell into any USD reversals.

It is now possible to automate Momentum2 and all DailyFX PLUS Trading Strategies via the Mirror Trader platform. Automate our SSI-based trading strategies via Mirror Trader free of charge

As always, I’ll keep my thoughts updated on DailyFX and send out trade updates via my e-mail distribution list.

Strategy Preferences Broken Down by Volatility Prices and Currency Trends

forex_strategy_update_us_dollar_trading_body_Picture_2.png, Trading Strategy Outlook Shifts as FX Volatility Prices Sell Offforex_strategy_update_us_dollar_trading_body_Picture_2_1.png, Trading Strategy Outlook Shifts as FX Volatility Prices Sell Off

Automate our SSI-based trading strategies via Mirror Trader free of charge

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive the Speculative Sentiment Index and Trade Updates this author via e-mail, sign up for his distribution list via this link.

Contact David via Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/DRodriguezFX

Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near 90-day lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s 90-day range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES