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Forex News: Dollar Holds Support as S&P Turns Lower on NYSE Open

Forex News: Dollar Holds Support as S&P Turns Lower on NYSE Open

2012-10-31 15:00:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
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Article Summary: The New York Stock Exchange opened for trading for the first time this week, and early declines led to gains in the safe-haven US Dollar. The Greenback continues to hold important support, but the next moves may prove pivotal ahead of Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

The US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) traded lower as the NYSE opened its floor for trading for the first time since Friday, and bearish momentum for the USD favors further losses through short-term trading.

A disappointing Chicago PMI Manufacturing data release set the tone for a more subdued NYSE session, and indeed the S&P 500 continued declines starting through the earlier London trading session via futures prices.

Fair Value of US S&P 500 Futures Price Declines After Setting Highs in London Session

Forex_News_Dollar_Holds_Support_as_SP_Turns_Lower_on_NYSE_Open_body_Picture_2.png, Forex News: Dollar Holds Support as S&P Turns Lower on NYSE Open

Source: FXCM Trading Station Desktop

We underlined the fact that the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index traded near pivotal support levels ahead of today’s NYSE open, and indeed the USDOLLAR continues to hold key lows.

Yet questions remain on whether the Dollar can remain resilient ahead of key economic data releases. The US Department of Labor has now confirmed that the highly-anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released as scheduled at 12:30 GMT on Friday, November 2.

The DailyFX Forex Economic Calendar has been updated to reflect cancelations due to Hurricane Sandy.

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index Continues to Hold Key Support at 9900

Forex_News_Dollar_Holds_Support_as_SP_Turns_Lower_on_NYSE_Open_body_Picture_1.png, Forex News: Dollar Holds Support as S&P Turns Lower on NYSE Open

Source: FXCM Trading Station Desktop

It will be critical to watch for surprises out of October’s labor market report—especially as forex markets gauge the likelihood of further US Federal Reserve monetary policy easing through coming months. Disappointments could further cement the case for Fed easing and keep our overall bearish US Dollar forecast intact.

The fact remains that FX market volatility levels trade near multi-year lows, and the safe-haven US Dollar tends to do poorly amidst slow market conditions. Yet the very recent turn lower in the S&P 500 suggests that the Greenback may continue to hold support—at least until potentially pivotal US Nonfarm Payrolls data due Friday.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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