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Forex Strategy Outlook: US Dollar Trend Trading Favored in New Year

Forex Strategy Outlook: US Dollar Trend Trading Favored in New Year

2012-01-03 16:00:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
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Strong US Dollar volatility into the first full trading day of the year suggests we may see similar moves into the foreseeable future, pointing to trend and breakout-based US Dollar trading until further notice.

DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias

forex_strategy_trading_outlook_new_year_body_Picture_1.png, Forex Strategy Outlook: US Dollar Trend Trading Favored in New Year

DailyFX PLUS System Trading SignalsThe year has started off with noteworthy moves across key currency pairs, and the US Dollar trades near key support across key currency pairs. As such, we’re positioning ourselves for continued trend moves, while breakouts could likewise offer good trading opportunities across several currency pairs.

Questions surround what trading conditions will look like in the New Year, but the most recent start to the week suggests it may be a volatile one. We’ll play strong moves accordingly and will shift biases as conditions warrant.

Market Conditions:

FX options traders start the year mostly where they left off, pricing in relatively muted moves across key currency pairs. Yet we hesitate to call for low-volatility trading; the sharp US Dollar losses into the week suggest we could see further strong moves into the days ahead. We’ll uncharacteristically go against low volatility readings and position ourselves for breakouts across several currency pairs.

forex_strategy_trading_outlook_new_year_body_Picture_2.png, Forex Strategy Outlook: US Dollar Trend Trading Favored in New Year

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact David, e-mail drodriguez@dailyfx.com

To be added to David’s e-mail distribution list for this and other reports, e-mail subject line “Distribution List” to drodriguez@dailyfx.com

Definitions

Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.

Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near monthly lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s monthly range.

Range High – 90-day closing high.

Range Low – 90-day closing low.

Last – Current market price.

Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES IS MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION.

OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice. The FXCM group will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance contained in the trading signals, or in any accompanying chart analyses.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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