News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Markets Week Ahead: Gold, Dow, Pound-Dollar, BoE Rate Decision, Fed Risk, PMIs Check out my recap of last week and preview of upcoming event risk, plus all the latest forecasts from the @DailyFX team below. Link to Analysis - $GLD $DJI $GBPUSD #Trading
  • Traders focus a lot of their energy on spotting the perfect time to enter a trade. While this is important, it is ultimately where traders choose to exit trades that will determine success. Learn about the three types of trading exit strategies here:
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here:
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here:
  • (Weekly Technical Outlook) US Dollar Outlook, Key Trend Reversals Playing Out? USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD #USD $USDCAD $AUDUSD $EURUSD $GBPUSD
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here:
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here:
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here:
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here:
  • Rollover is the interest paid or earned for holding a currency spot position overnight. Learn how to earn rollover interest on your open positions here:
Central Bank Weekly: How Much Further Can Fed, ECB, BOJ Ease?

Central Bank Weekly: How Much Further Can Fed, ECB, BOJ Ease?

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Talking Points

- In line with the improvement in US growth expectations in recent weeks, Fed funds are no longer pricing in a 25-bps rate cut for this September; instead, odds slightly favor a cut in December.

- Eurodollar contract spreads have rebounded as have US Treasury yields; the ‘dove’ case from the Fed is being diminished across the board.

- Retail traders continue to trade against US Dollar strength.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on the US Dollar? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

The US Dollar (via the DXY Index) has had a several few weeks since the March Fed meeting. While the initial reaction by the US Dollar was lower after Fed Chair Jerome Powell threw in the towel on a potential rate hike in 2019, the underlying cause – that global growth is slowing amid heightened trade tensions – has seemingly lost face value in recent days.

US Growth Expectations Have Rebounded

With the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1’19 growth tracker pointing to 2.1% annualized growth (up from 0.2% in the second week of March), we’ve seen US Treasury yields rebound and rate expectations rebound meaningful. All of the sudden, not only is the US Dollar benefiting from the perspective as a safe haven – there are plenty of concerns elsewhere – domestic developments are turning supportive in the short-term for the US Dollar once more.

Fed Funds are Now Discounting a December Rate Cut

It’s evident that traders were taking cues from the Fed’s warnings about global growth. Immediately after the March Fed meeting, odds of a September cut jumped from 16% to as high as 58%. But since their apex at the end of March, rate cut odds have climbed down significantly. No longer are Fed funds pricing in a cut for September (40%); instead, that’s been pushed back to December (56%).

Federal Reserve Rate Hike Expectations (April 4, 2019) (Table 1)

fed funds rate expectations, fed rate expectations, fomc rates

We can measure whether or not a rate cut is being priced-in for 2020 by examining the difference in borrowing costs for commercial banks over a one-year time horizon in the future. Whereas the spread between the Eurodollar June 2019 and 2020 contracts fell on a straight line after the March Fed meeting, we’ve seen cut expectations cool off meaningfully.

Eurodollar December 2019/2020 Spread: Daily Timeframe (October 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

eurodollar contract spread

The Eurodollar December 2019 and 2020 contract spread was discounting -38.5-bps out at its extreme after the March Fed meeting, effectively one and one-half 25-bps cuts. But since rebounding, rates markets are only pricing-out -26-bps, or just one cut for 2020.

Read more: March US Nonfarm Payrolls & EURUSD Price Outlook


Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.