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Graphic Rewind: Buying the Dollar on a Debt Deal Rumor, Then Selling It on News

Graphic Rewind: Buying the Dollar on a Debt Deal Rumor, Then Selling It on News

2013-10-17 16:43:00
Benjamin Spier, Technical Strategist

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar sells off on official announcement of the anticipated debt deal
  • Greenback traders jittery on a ratings downgrade
  • US Dollar hits a five month low

A look back at the past 24 hours of Forex trading using movements in the US Dollar Index:

US Dollar 15-Minute 08:00 10/16 to 08:00 10/17 EST

Graphic_Rewind_Buying_the_Dollar_on_a_Debt_Deal_Rumor_Then_Selling_It_on_News_body_Picture_1.png, Graphic Rewind: Buying the Dollar on a Debt Deal Rumor, Then Selling It on News

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The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar index perfectly displayed a ‘buy the rumor and sell the news’ pattern during the lead-up and then announcement of a deal to end the government shutdown and suspend the debt ceiling.

In the first half of Wednesday’s NY session, the US Dollar rose to a four day high and US stock markets rallied on rumors that the leaders representing Democratic and Republican Senators had come to an agreement to pass the anticipated bill. However, a little after noon EST, Senators McConnell and Reid together officially announced the deal in front of the Senate, and the US Dollar began its decline.

The US Dollar closed a bit higher than the open by the end of Wednesday’s trading, and the greenback index only declined slightly until the London session start. Then, the US Dollar tumbled to a five month low on news that the Chinese Dagong rating agency downgraded the US from A to A-. Although Dagong is a small agency, the downgrade touched on fears that other ratings agencies will downgrade US government debt, as the next debt ceiling showdown may happen again in February.

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Charts created by Benjamin Spier using Marketscope 2.0

-- Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX Research. Feedback can be sent to instructor@dailyfx.com .

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