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Graphic Rewind: Unsubstantiated Rumors Add to US Dollar Volatility

Graphic Rewind: Unsubstantiated Rumors Add to US Dollar Volatility

Benjamin Spier, Technical Strategist

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar rallies temporarily on false debt ceiling rumors
  • Pound lends short-lived gains to USD on mistaken BoE LTRO

A look back at the past 24 hours of Forex trading using movements in the US Dollar Index:

US Dollar 15-Minute 08:00 10/07 to 08:00 10/08 EST

Graphic_Rewind_Unsubstantiated_Rumors_Add_to_US_Dollar_Volatility_body_Picture_1.png, Graphic Rewind: Unsubstantiated Rumors Add to US Dollar Volatility

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In an environment where traders remain jittery over the possible outcomes of the government shutdown and pending debt ceiling crises, unusual rumors led to short lived spikes in trading of the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index.

During the New York session in Forex markets on Monday, rumors circulated that a deal to push off the debt ceiling by 6-months was in the works. The prospect of avoiding the pending default sent the US Dollar and the S&P futures higher. However, those gains were soon unwound, as the rumors proved unsubstantiated.

Overnight, the US Dollar gained some ground during the Asian session, and found a daily top after the London open, following a misunderstanding of a Bank of England comment. Traders had misinterpreted a statement to mean the central bank would start an ECB like LTRO plan, and the misunderstanding sent the US Dollar higher against the Pound. However, those gains were soon erased as a better explanation of the statement showed the BoE would not be significantly expanding its balance sheet. Over the rest of the European session, the gains during the Asian session were also erased.

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Charts created by Benjamin Spier using Marketscope 2.0

-- Written by Benjamin Spier, DailyFX Research. Feedback can be sent to instructor@dailyfx.com .

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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