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USD Rebounds While FX Volatility Remains Muted Ahead of Big Event Risk

USD Rebounds While FX Volatility Remains Muted Ahead of Big Event Risk

Kevin Jin,

THE TAKEAWAY: Dollar Index bounces off of $10700 and pares some losses from last week > June US Pending Home Sales comes in better than expected at +9.1%, versus +8.3% expected

Global markets are trading mixed ahead of a slew of significant event risk this week (further analysis). Most of these events will occur in the second half of this week. In the meantime, there were few market-moving events today and FX volatility remained relatively low.

In the US, Pending Home Sales came in at +9.1% y/y during June, better than the +8.3% Bloomberg News survey expected. This news was initially bullish for the USD although the consequent market reaction had little initial follow through. This housing data will be taken in context with the range of other recently released data, which paints a somewhat mixed picture ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting. Read the market alert here.

Equity markets are trading decidedly bearish today. Japanese stocks declined the most and the declines today are being felt throughout both developed and emerging markets: S&P -0.56%; Euro Stoxx -0.12%; FTSE -0.14%; Nikkei -3.68%; Hang Seng -0.54%; Bovespa -0.61%; Sensex -0.78% at the time of writing.

The subsequent reaction in government bond markets is not as pronounced. 10YR government bond yields trade as follows: US -1.4bps (-0.54%) to 2.577%; Germany +0.0bps (+0.00%) to 1.663%; Spain +5.6bps (+1.21%) to 4.665%; Japan +0.9bps (+1.15%) to 0.786% at the time of writing.

In commodities, base metals continue to get hit hard: WTI -0.02%; Brent +0.15%; LME Copper -2.18%; COMEX Copper +0.18%; Shanghai Copper -2.25% at the time of writing.

Lastly in FX markets, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) gains +46 (+0.43%) to $10739 at the time of writing.

AUDUSD 15-minute Chart: July 29, 2013

USD_Rebounds_While_FX_Volatility_Remains_Muted_Ahead_of_Big_Event_Risk_body_Picture_4.png, USD Rebounds While FX Volatility Remains Muted Ahead of Big Event Risk

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The AUDUSD is net -0.59% lower at the time of writing, only outpaced by the NZDUSD which is down by -0.83%. The pair consistently declined from Asian hours into European close. Although there was consolidation near $0.9250, the AUDUSD failed to meaningfully break it after London Open.

GBPUSD 15-minute Chart: July 29, 2013

USD_Rebounds_While_FX_Volatility_Remains_Muted_Ahead_of_Big_Event_Risk_body_Picture_3.png, USD Rebounds While FX Volatility Remains Muted Ahead of Big Event Risk

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The GBPUSD is slightly lower by -0.20% at the time of writing. The cable has been consolidating in the last two trading days, still unable to break outside of Thursday’s range.

EURUSD 15-minute Chart: July 29, 2013

USD_Rebounds_While_FX_Volatility_Remains_Muted_Ahead_of_Big_Event_Risk_body_Picture_2.png, USD Rebounds While FX Volatility Remains Muted Ahead of Big Event Risk

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The EURUSD is lower by -0.18% as volatility remains muted. The pair has remained within a 50 pip range between $1.3250 and 1.3300. The EURUSD is consolidating at the end of London trading, at the time of writing.

USDJPY 15-minute Chart: July 29, 2013

USD_Rebounds_While_FX_Volatility_Remains_Muted_Ahead_of_Big_Event_Risk_body_Picture_1.png, USD Rebounds While FX Volatility Remains Muted Ahead of Big Event Risk

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The USDJPY is net lower by -0.37% at the time of writing. The JPY is one of the few major currencies trading stronger than the USD today while commodity-block currencies are declining the most. The USDJPY did move as low as ¥97.62 in Asian trading before trading choppily around 98.00 thereafter.

--- Written by Kevin Jin, DailyFX Research

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