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Global Markets Trending Higher While USD Gains Against European Currencies

Global Markets Trending Higher While USD Gains Against European Currencies

2013-07-09 16:36:00
Kevin Jin,
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THE TAKEAWAY: Dollar Index extends gains and seeks the $11,000 level > Britain reports weaker than expected Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production numbers

The IMF released its Global Economic Forecasts publication today, which cut Eurozone growth projections this year -20bps to -0.6%. The IMF in fact expected global growth to slow more than expected, resulting in a -20bps downward revision in world output to 3.1% this year.

More bearish news came out of Europe this morning as well as Britain reported worse than expected production numbers. GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY): -2.3% actual; -1.5% Bloomberg News survey expected; -1.4% prior (revised down from -0.6%). GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (MAY): -2.9% actual; -1.6% Bloomberg News survey expected; -0.9% prior (revised down from -0.5%). The NIESR also released its UK GDP estimate, which matched last period’s +0.6% figure.

Despite all this, global markets move broadly higher. Bond markets are decently stronger as 10YR government bond yields decline: Germany -4.6bps (-2.78%) to 1.651%; Portugal -17.8bps (-2.72%) to 6.542%; US -0.7bps (-0.26%) to 2.628%; Japan -1.2bps (-1.39%) to 0.860% at the time of writing.

Commodities are mixed: WTI +0.12%; Brent -0.04%; LME Copper +0.60%; COMEX Copper -2.00%; Shanghai Copper +0.53% at the time of writing.

Investor optimism today can be clearly seen in equities. The implied volatility in the markets, measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), is down -3.04% to 14.33 at the time of writing. Developed market equities are gaining while emerging markets slightly lag: S&P +0.58%; Euro Stoxx +0.50%; FTSE +0.98%; Nikkei +2.58%; Hang Seng +0.49%; Bovespa -0.30%; Sensex +0.59% at the time of writing.

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) gains +25 (+0.22%) to $10976 at the time of writing. The index reached a high of $10990 on the day as it makes another run at the $11000 level.

AUDUSD 15-minute Chart: July 9, 2013

Global_Markets_Trending_Higher_While_USD_Gains_Against_European_Currencies_body_Picture_4.png, Global Markets Trending Higher While USD Gains Against European Currencies

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The AUDUSD is up +24 pips (+0.26%) to $0.9155 at the time of writing. The slight increase today marks a second consecutive daily gain—an uncommon feat recently for the AUDUSD. The pair has not held two consecutive days of gains since June 26, two weeks ago. Towards London Open and New York Open, the pair approached the weekly R1 pivot of .9193 and was unable to get past this level.

GBPUSD 15-minute Chart: July 9, 2013

Global_Markets_Trending_Higher_While_USD_Gains_Against_European_Currencies_body_Picture_3.png, Global Markets Trending Higher While USD Gains Against European Currencies

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The GBPUSD is trading heavily lower today, down -112 pips (-0.74%) to $1.4837 at the time of writing. As previously mentioned, British manufacturing and industrial production missed expectations and the sterling fell steeply after these data releases. The cable actually declined to 1.4812 today, which is the lowest level since June 2010.

EURUSD 15-minute Chart: July 9, 2013

Global_Markets_Trending_Higher_While_USD_Gains_Against_European_Currencies_body_Picture_2.png, Global Markets Trending Higher While USD Gains Against European Currencies

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The EURUSD is trading mostly lower today, declining -77 pips (-0.59%) to $1.2790 at the time of writing. These down moves mostly occurred early in the New York Session, at 14:00 GMT (10:00 EDT on chart above). The EURUSD easily moved through 1.2800 although prices are rebounding through London Close and approaching 1.2800 at the time of writing.

USDJPY 15-minute Chart: July 9, 2013

Global_Markets_Trending_Higher_While_USD_Gains_Against_European_Currencies_body_Picture_1.png, Global Markets Trending Higher While USD Gains Against European Currencies

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

Similar to yesterday, the USDJPY is trading in a 50 pip range again between ¥100.75 and 101.25. Traders are uncertain where to take this pair next and the relative lack of significant news catalysts in the last two days can partly explain its trading consolidation.

--- Written by Kevin Jin, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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