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USD Strength Continues as USD/JPY Surpasses ¥100.00 Hurdle

USD Strength Continues as USD/JPY Surpasses ¥100.00 Hurdle

Kevin Jin,

THE TAKEAWAY: RBA keeps benchmark rates at 2.75% while maintaining dovish tone > USDJPY trades beyond ¥100.00 for the first time since June 5

Several noteworthy fundamental and trade-related events occurred today. During the Asian session, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep its benchmark rate at the already record low 2.75%. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens stated that the “[AUD] remains at a high level [and may] depreciate further over time, which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth.” This is essentially a reiteration of the RBA’s stance stated during last meeting’s Minutes. Meanwhile in North America, US Factory Orders (MAY) beat Bloomberg News survey expectations (2.1% actual; 2.0% expected).

Following yesterday’s trend of market optimism, commodities and equities continue to lead in trading. Equity market gains today are not nearly as pronounced as yesterday and European equities actually traded lower, but US market strength continues: S&P +0.56%; Euro Stoxx -0.75%; FTSE -0.16%; Nikkei +1.78% at the time of writing. Commodities are performing well with crude and base metals trading mostly higher: WTI +0.93%; Brent +0.51%; LME Copper +3.39%; COMEX Copper -0.44%; Shanghai Copper +1.84% at the time of writing. Lastly, bonds are trading flat yet again today. 10YR government bond yields trade as follows: US +0.0bps (+0.00%) to 2.477%; Germany -1.6bps (-0.93%) to 1.702%; Italy +2.2bps (+0.49%) to 4.434% at the time of writing. In FX, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) gains +52 (+0.48%) to 10871 at the time of writing.

AUDUSD 15-minute Chart: July 2, 2013

USD_Strength_Continues_as_USDJPY_Surpasses_100.00_Hurdle_body_Picture_4.png, USD Strength Continues as USD/JPY Surpasses ¥100.00 Hurdle

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The AUDUSD falls below the $0.9200 support level on trading today immediately following the RBA rate decision and corresponding dovish rhetoric. The pair was unable to retake the .9200 level during London Open and remains about 40 pips below at the time of writing, at London Close.

GBPUSD 15-minute Chart: July 2, 2013

USD_Strength_Continues_as_USDJPY_Surpasses_100.00_Hurdle_body_Picture_3.png, USD Strength Continues as USD/JPY Surpasses ¥100.00 Hurdle

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The GBPUSD is net down today after breaking $1.5200 support early into the London trading session. The pair did rebound towards New York Open and maintains trading below 1.5200, down -0.32% at the time of writing. The cable found some support around the 1.5150 level.

EURUSD 15-minute Chart: July 2, 2013

USD_Strength_Continues_as_USDJPY_Surpasses_100.00_Hurdle_body_Picture_2.png, USD Strength Continues as USD/JPY Surpasses ¥100.00 Hurdle

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The EURUSD managed to break below the psychologically important $1.3000 level towards New York Open but was unable to sustain the move. Traders took the pair roughly +30 pips higher before meeting resistance at 1.3033. The pair currently trades off this level and is slightly trending downwards at the time of writing.

USDJPY 15-minute Chart: July 2, 2013

USD_Strength_Continues_as_USDJPY_Surpasses_100.00_Hurdle_body_Picture_1.png, USD Strength Continues as USD/JPY Surpasses ¥100.00 Hurdle

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

USDJPY was likely the most watched pair as it finally moved back above the psychologically important ¥100.00 level. The USDJPY has not been above 100.00 since June 5. Trading today was mostly bullish on this pair with very little pushback on the downside. The pair is seeing additional strength past London Close, moving to 100.58 at the time of writing.

--- Written by Kevin Jin, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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