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FX Markets Hold Breath In Front of FOMC Meeting; USD Weakens During New York Open

FX Markets Hold Breath In Front of FOMC Meeting; USD Weakens During New York Open

Kevin Jin,

THE TAKEAWAY: USD weakens ahead of today’s FOMC meeting > EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD all gaining on the day > USDJPY weakening on the day.

Markets anxiously await today’s FOMC meeting at 14:00 EDT / 18:00 GMT, which is likely one of the most important events this quarter. All eyes are on the Fed and their corresponding rhetoric concerning QE tapering. Due to the significance of the event, investors are positioning themselves by either leaving their trades to avoid large volatility and event risk, or on balance shorting the USD based on price action today. Theoretically, a delay in tapering relative to market expectations would cause the USD to weaken because interest rates would stay low and money supply would be comparatively higher. Note that the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) falls -35 (-0.331%) on the day to 10515 at the time of writing.

A cross-sectional look at different asset classes shows a large sell-off in the USD and bonds towards New York Open. 10YR US Treasuries are up +2.4bps (+1.098%) to 2.210% at the time of writing. Notably, there is a near +4bps move towards New York Open. Crude oil also erases most of its gains on the day near New York Open: WTI -0.19%; Brent +0.04% at the time of writing. US equities trade slightly lower, as they have since market open: S&P 500 -0.05% at the time of writing.

AUDUSD 15-minute Chart: June 19, 2013

FX_Markets_Hold_Breath_In_Front_of_FOMC_Meeting_USD_Weakens_During_New_York_Open_body_Picture_4.png, FX Markets Hold Breath In Front of FOMC Meeting; USD Weakens During New York Open

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The AUDUSD traded higher across Asian, European, and New York sessions. The pair started the trading day at $0.9463 and remains about +81 pips up to .9544 at the time of writing. Price action shows the AUDUSD met some resistance at .9500 and broke upwards at New York Open.

GBPUSD 15-minute Chart: June 19, 2013

FX_Markets_Hold_Breath_In_Front_of_FOMC_Meeting_USD_Weakens_During_New_York_Open_body_Picture_3.png, FX Markets Hold Breath In Front of FOMC Meeting; USD Weakens During New York Open

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The GBPUSD 1.5629 inches net +21 pips higher today to $1.5650 at the time of writing. The pair sold off -50 pips near London Open but regained most of that later throughout the European session and into New York Open. The pair continues to find near-term support near 1.5650 through London Close as the pair continues to consolidate ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting.

EURUSD 15-minute Chart: June 19, 2013

FX_Markets_Hold_Breath_In_Front_of_FOMC_Meeting_USD_Weakens_During_New_York_Open_body_Picture_2.png, FX Markets Hold Breath In Front of FOMC Meeting; USD Weakens During New York Open

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The EURUSD remains mostly range-bound today between $1.3380 to 1.3405 with the pair hovering below the 1.3400 level through most of European trading. The three rallies up past the 1.3400 figure were subsequently sold off not much longer—first during Asian Open, next heading into London Open, and then midway through the London session. The pair is currently past the 1.3400 level and price action will dictate whether the pair sells off similar to before or is able to sustain this price. Overall, the EURUSD trades +10 net on the day to 1.3401 at the time of writing.

USDJPY 15-minute Chart: June 19, 2013

FX_Markets_Hold_Breath_In_Front_of_FOMC_Meeting_USD_Weakens_During_New_York_Open_body_Picture_1.png, FX Markets Hold Breath In Front of FOMC Meeting; USD Weakens During New York Open

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

Following the trend of USD weakness today, the USDJPY decreases -38 pips to ¥95.19 at the time of writing. The pair moved generally lower throughout the Asian session, which brought the pair down towards 95.00 support. The pair briefly dipped below this 95.00 level but bounced back above during London open. Price action then stagnated right around the 95.00 for much of European trading, with a small rally towards London Close.

--- Written by Kevin Jin, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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