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USD Strengthens Before FOMC Meeting Tomorrow

USD Strengthens Before FOMC Meeting Tomorrow

2013-06-18 16:39:00
Kevin Jin,
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THE TAKEAWAY: USD strengthens ahead of FOMC meeting > US Consumer Price Index (MAY)(YoY) +1.4% as expected, from +1.1% > UK Consumer Price Index (MAY) (YoY) +2.7% versus +2.6% expected, from +2.4%.

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) gains +42 (+0.398%) on the day to 10539 at the time of writing. Out of Europe, UK May CPI (YoY) comes in at +2.7% versus +2.6% expected (Bloomberg News survey). German Economic Sentiment reads +38.5, slightly better than the +38.1 expected (Bloomberg News survey). Meanwhile in North America, US May CPI (YoY) shows an increase of +1.4% in line with Bloomberg news survey expectations.

US equity markets are higher again today while European and Asian equities trade mixed: S&P 500 +0.49%; Euro Stoxx -0.05%; FTSE +0.83%; Nikkei -0.20%; Hang Seng flat at the time of writing. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) also shows the market calming ahead of the all-important FOMC meeting tomorrow, with VIX declining -0.95% to 16.64 at the time of writing.

Commodities also trade mixed today with crude moving slightly higher and base metals continuing lower: WTI +0.12%; Brent +0.10%; COMEX Copper -1.54% at the time of writing. Bond markets trade similar to yesterday with 10YR US treasury yields inching higher: +1.3bps (+0.596%) to 2.194% at the time of writing.

AUDUSD 15-minute Chart: June 18, 2013

USD_Firms_Up_Before_FOMC_Meeting_Tomorrow_body_Picture_4.png, USD Strengthens Before FOMC Meeting Tomorrow

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the June 2013 Minutes today at 1:30 GMT (June 17 21:30 EDT on above chart). The Minutes state that “it [is] possible that the exchange rate [will] depreciate further over time as the terms of trade [have] declined, which [will] help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy.” The AUDUSD steadily declined about 90 pips in the eight hours following the Minutes, until consolidating just below $0.9450. However, the AUDUSD reversed near New York Open as traders carry the pair roughly 50 pips higher to .9493 at the time of writing.

GBPUSD 15-minute Chart: June 18, 2013

USD_Firms_Up_Before_FOMC_Meeting_Tomorrow_body_Picture_3.png, USD Strengthens Before FOMC Meeting Tomorrow

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The GBPUSD traded on low volume in the Tokyo session before the pair moved violently after UK CPI data was released. As previously stated, the UK CPI beat Bloomberg News survey expectations: +2.7% actual versus +2.6% expected. The pair attempted to trade up to $1.5700 but was rejected at this key resistance level, moving lower for most of the European session. The pair did bounce off of its low of 1.5564 at New York Open and the cable currently trades 61 pips off of those lows, at 1.5625 at the time of writing.

EURUSD 15-minute Chart: June 18, 2013

USD_Firms_Up_Before_FOMC_Meeting_Tomorrow_body_Picture_2.png, USD Strengthens Before FOMC Meeting Tomorrow

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The EURUSD was able to break past the $1.3350 short-term resistance it struggled to break yesterday and the pair trades up +42 pips to 1.3403 at the time of writing. German Economic Sentiment data was released at 9:00 GMT (5:00 EDT on above chart) and as the slightly better than expected data print failed to produce any net moves bullish or bearish; the survey prints +38.5, slightly better than the +38.1 expected (Bloomberg News survey). It is unclear whether the pair can hold the 1.3400 level, which experienced heavy selling pressure earlier during European hours.

USDJPY 15-minute Chart: June 18, 2013

USD_Firms_Up_Before_FOMC_Meeting_Tomorrow_body_Picture_1.png, USD Strengthens Before FOMC Meeting Tomorrow

Charts Created using Marketscopeprepared by Kevin Jin

The USDJPY crawls higher today, gaining +73 pips today to ¥95.29 at the time of writing. The gains occurred steadily until the pair reached resistance around the 95.70 mark, which it was unable to break. The low was carved out shortly after at 95.06, which occurred at 15.45 GMT (11:45 EDT on above chart). The pair continues to sell off during New York Open and through London Close.

--- Written by Kevin Jin, DailyFX Research

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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