Dust Settles After SNB; Outlook for Dollar Index Constructive
With the recent acceleration to the topside in the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDollar) and the alleviation of imminent downside pressures we once again find ourselves looking tentatively higher for a potential topside break. We remind readers that the index recently stalled out declines around the 9,400 level ahead of testing range lows at 9,320, as the index moves higher we continue to look for a break-out move. The index has been trading in a loose 9,350 – 9,770 range for several weeks now and as it continues bouncing from topside failures to downside failures a break-out looks more imminent.
Yesterday’s choppy trade fueled by the unexpected SNB measure of enacting a minimum exchange rate in Eur/Chf helped propel the index higher. However, daily charts are beginning to look a tad stretched and the pull back we are seeing this morning is to be expected and could continue throughout the day, we expect buyers to re-emerge around 9,550. Assuming the index manages to remain above the falling trend line identified on the above chart on daily close basis we have plenty of reason to expect a test of range highs at 9,770 soon. At this juncture to forecast a topside break may be hasty due to the range-bound nature of trade in recent weeks but the ongoing deterioration in the EMU and the removal of some of the franc’s safe haven appeal by the SNB leaves the buck well positioned to make a significant run higher and shift the medium term structure.
We can see on this weekly chart just how much topside potential there still is in the index if it can break above the range highs which have capped gains in recent weeks and months. A topside break could, and should, climb above the 10,000 level in very little time shifting the entire structure of the index and making the recent consolidation around lows look like the carving out of a significant base. We remind readers this is all over the medium-term and in the short-term we look for the test, and possible break, of range highs to gauge direction.
Written by Jonathan Granby, DailyFX Research Team
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.