News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @KyleR_IG: Certainly a highlight of my career. If I was smart enough, I would have made a wisecrack about #Evergrande. #earthquake http…
  • RT @FxWestwater: Australian Dollar Forecast: Evergrande, PBOC, Risk Trends, BoJ on the Radar Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2021/09/21/Australian-Dollar-Forecast-Evergrande-PBOC-Risk-Trends-BoJ-on-the-Radar.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/L0…
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/9FeeIfuozg
  • The Bank of England should scrap the last of its quantitative easing plans and start preparing for an increase in interest rates. All 9 members of the shadow monetary policy committee said the Bank should end the QE programme early, with almost £50bln left - The Times
  • The Nasdaq 100 gains modestly after Monday's sharp losses, but sentiment remains cautious ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Get your market update from @Tams707 here:https://t.co/HLDN2JGfAf https://t.co/mRhlLUBGq6
  • Ethereum continues its sharp slide, currently down more than 4.7% on the day $ETHUSD #Ethereum https://t.co/BoTAiljU0y
  • Rising energy prices weigh on European policymakers as consumers fear higher prices, carbon dioxide shortages (CO2), and cold winter. Get your market update from @Tams707 here:https://t.co/HLDN2JGfAf https://t.co/tWhlMrXN4G
  • US President Biden: - Will discuss a trade deal with UK PM Boris Johnson - I do not want to see a closure of Irish borders
  • AUD/USD continues to trend lower ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting. Further $USD strength could bring the August low into play $AUDUSD https://t.co/X3zfpYN8Qe
  • Nasdaq Ekes Out Small Gain As Focus Turns to FOMC, Uber Flies On Bullish Guidance $NDX $UBER #trading #FED https://t.co/1uL1Ao3o3v
Nasdaq 100 Forecast for the Week Ahead: 16000 in Focus as Non-Farm Payrolls Near

Nasdaq 100 Forecast for the Week Ahead: 16000 in Focus as Non-Farm Payrolls Near

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Nasdaq 100, Fed, Jackson Hole, Non-Farm Payrolls Report – Week Ahead

  • Nasdaq 100 climbed into record highs, with 16000 nearing ahead
  • Tech stocks continued building on to gains after Jackson Hole symposium
  • US non-farm payrolls report in focus. Will a soft print boost Nasdaq?

Nasdaq 100 Resumes Dominant Uptrend Post Jackson Hole

The Nasdaq 100 extended its dominant uptrend since 2020 as the new trading week got underway, inching closer towards 16000. Tech stocks added onto gains obtained at the conclusion of last week’s Fed Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. There, Fed Chair Jerome Powell disappointed investors who were looking for more hawkish signals. The Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones futures rallied into the close.

Mr Powell’s speech could have been interpreted as relatively dovish in the context of the labor market. At the end of the day, the central bank has a dual mandate. While inflation is running above target and is expected to be transitory, Powell noted that the goal of seeing ‘significant further progress’ on employment has not been met quite yet.

While the markets may be slowly accepting the reality of balance sheet tapering being just around the corner, a rate hike still remains a ways off. On the chart below, the Nasdaq 100 can be seen rising as December 2022 Fed rate hike bets weaken after Jackson Hole. As such, growth-oriented shares likely capitalized on the central bank’s still-patient tone on monetary policy.

This is also placing much weight on this week’s non-farm payrolls report. A solid round of data could revive faster-than-expected tapering expectations. Is that asking for too much? According to the Citi Economic Surprise Index, US data is tending to underperform relative to economists’ expectations. This suggests analysts are overestimating the health and vigor of the economy’s potential. This may open the door to a softer jobs report, underscoring Powell’s tone on the labor market, and keeping hawkish Fed bets at bay.

Nasdaq 100 Forecast for the Week Ahead: 16000 in Focus as Non-Farm Payrolls Near

Chart Created in TradingView

Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis

The record push in the Nasdaq 100 has brought it above the midpoint of the Fibonacci extension at 15485.50. Immediate resistance seems to be the 61.8% extension point at 15731. Above that price is the 78.6% level at 16080.66. In the event of a turn lower, keep a close eye on the former 14996 – 15172 resistance zone. It may come into play as new support. A further breakdown under the 20- and 50-period Simple Moving Averages risks opening the door to a material turn lower. The July low at 14445 could then act as critical support.

Nasdaq 100 Forecast for the Week Ahead: 16000 in Focus as Non-Farm Payrolls Near

Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES