News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Nasdaq 100 index has likely formed an inverse “Head and Shoulders” pattern, which is typically viewed as a bullish trend reversal indicator. Prices may advance further to challenge their all-time highs. Get your market update from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/tvkE2y6X03 https://t.co/nxxMZFB3Pu
  • Earnings season begins this week with the arrival of quarterly reports from the country’s largest banks. Can they shrug off losses from the recent Archegos blowup and rally higher or will risk aversion take root? Market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/Q0LEH8fHzu https://t.co/ywVQ1KwZ26
  • Traders focus a lot of their energy on spotting the perfect time to enter a trade. While this is important, it is ultimately where traders choose to exit trades that will determine success. Learn about the three types of trading exit strategies here: https://t.co/muYkTNXH7s https://t.co/i70XLrni1w
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/Zl7sfu0OT2
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/QqlZ2dQgVv
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/lvIUu5FHoq
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/bpKdIqGxsn
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/jmcAIW4w5k
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/M9isuvnzqF
  • The British Pound is giving back some of its multi-month gains with some pairs testing notable support despite a positive fundamental backdrop. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/6Ct5R0H41F https://t.co/c4rXmMjMrv
Natural Gas Outlook: Colder Weather, Technical Support to Guide Prices Higher?

Natural Gas Outlook: Colder Weather, Technical Support to Guide Prices Higher?

Thomas Westwater, Analyst

Natural Gas Forecast – Talking Points

  • Natural gas’s total loss for March approached 6% following Februarys bullish action
  • EIA storage level below its 5-year average, opening price up to demand-side sensitivity
  • Price action sees the heating gas between two key moving averages after selling off
The Quiz
Discover what kind of forex trader you are
Start Quiz

Natural gas prices struggled in March, dropping nearly 6%. The lackluster performance for the heating gas follows a solid performance in February, when prices rose over 8% from the prior month, as colder-than-average weather swept across the United States. A major US storm system in Texas also helped bolster prices. However, March’s performance pressured prices back within January’s trading range.

Thursday presents a possible opportunity for some directional movement in price, with the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report set to cross the wires. According to the DailyFX Economic Calendar, analysts expect a build of 21 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in underground storage for the week ending March 26. Naturally, an inventory build is bearish for prices.

A surprise draw, however, may exert some upside force on prices when considering the current inventory dynamic. While underground storage levels remain within the historical maximum – minimum price range, inventory is below the 5-year average, according to the EIA. The below-average supply level, through supply-demand dynamics, leaves prices potentially more exposed to demand-side factors. The chart below – provided by the EIA – illustrates the storage levels.

EIA UNDERGROUND INVENTORY LEVELS

EIA inventory levels

Sourced from EIA.gov

That said, the latest 8-14 day temperature outlook from the National Weather Service’s (NWS) Climate Prediction Center shows a high probability for below-average temperatures across the Western United States. The forecast also shows a very high probability, over 70%, for colder days in Alaska for the period ranging from April 8 to April 14. Warmer weather in other parts of the US may counteract the demand picture, however.

NOAA 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY

NOAA temp forecast

Sourced from noaa.gov

Natural Gas Technical Outlook

March trading has seen natural gas drop below its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), with a subsequent selloff to the supportive 200-day SMA. Moreover, prices pierced below a trendline from the September swing low between those two key SMAs. Overall, price action is now on a more bearish footing given these technical moves.

The 200-day SMA serves as the most pertinent level of support currently. However, a move in either direction may likely see prices stall or pause before continuing. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is on tap for a near-term zone of support. To the downside, the 61.8% Fib may deflect a moderate selloff. A bullish crossover between the MACD and its signal line appears to have had helped guide prices higher earlier this week. A continued move to cross above its center line may further bolster some bullish energy.

Natural Gas Daily Chart

natural gas chart

Chart created with TradingView

Natural Gas TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwateron Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES